China CNY

China Total Social Financing

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: People's Bank of China

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

CNY-210B

Actual:

CNY2290B

Forecast: CNY2500B

Previous/Revision:

CNY7060B

Period: Feb

What Does It Measure?

China's Total Social Financing (TSF) measures the total amount of credit and financing provided to the real economy, encompassing various financial instruments such as loans, equity investments, and corporate bonds. This indicator focuses primarily on lending to households and businesses, assessing financial stability and economic activity within China.

Frequency

TSF figures are released monthly, typically published around the 15th day of the month following the reporting month, and represent a final figure rather than preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to TSF as it serves as a vital indication of domestic liquidity and economic growth potential in China, impacting global markets and key assets such as the Chinese Yuan (CNY), equities, and commodities. Significant increases in TSF usually signal robust economic expansion, while declines can suggest a slowdown, making it crucial for gauging sentiment and investment strategies.

What Is It Derived From?

TSF is derived from the aggregated data collected from various Chinese financial institutions, including banks and shadow banking entities, which report their lending activities and the issuance of other financial instruments. It utilizes methodologies that involve measuring the flow of credit to different sectors, ensuring comprehensive coverage of financing channels in the economy.

Description

TSF is critical for understanding China’s credit situation, as it provides insight into the levels of financial support available to the non-financial sectors of the economy. It captures not only bank loans but also bonds and other forms of credit, thus offering a holistic view of economic liquidity and potential growth trajectories.

Additional Notes

As a coincident economic measure, TSF is essential for evaluating real-time economic conditions and forecasting future economic activity. It is closely watched in relation to other indicators like GDP growth and consumer spending, giving analysts a clearer picture of overall economic health in China and its implications for global markets.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Mar 14, 2025	CNY2290B	CNY2500B	CNY7060B	CNY-210B
Feb 14, 2025	CNY7060B	CNY6400B	CNY2860B	CNY660B
Jan 14, 2025	CNY2860B	CNY2000B	CNY2340B	CNY860B
Dec 13, 2024	CNY2340B	CNY2800B	CNY1400B	CNY-460B
Nov 11, 2024	CNY1400B	CNY1545B	CNY3760B	CNY-145B
Oct 14, 2024	CNY3760B	CNY3730B	CNY3030B	CNY30B
Sep 13, 2024	CNY3030B	CNY2950B	CNY770B	CNY80B
Aug 13, 2024	CNY770B	CNY1100B	CNY3300B	CNY-330B
Jul 12, 2024	CNY3300B	CNY5300B	CNY2070B	CNY-2000B
Jun 14, 2024	CNY2070B	CNY-50B	CNY-72B	CNY2120B
May 11, 2024	CNY-200B	CNY1780B	CNY4870B	CNY-1980B
Apr 12, 2024	CNY4870B	CNY4700B	CNY1558.3B	CNY170B
Mar 15, 2024	CNY1558.3B	CNY2220B	CNY6500B	CNY-661.7B
Feb 09, 2024	CNY6500B	CNY5550B	CNY1940B	CNY950B
Jan 12, 2024	CNY1940B	CNY2200B	CNY2450B	CNY-260B
Dec 13, 2023	CNY2450B	CNY2600B	CNY1850B	CNY-150B
Nov 13, 2023	CNY1850B	CNY1900B	CNY4120B	CNY-50B
Oct 13, 2023	CNY4120B	CNY3800B	CNY3120B	CNY320B
Sep 11, 2023	CNY3120B	CNY2460B	CNY528.2B	CNY660B
Aug 11, 2023	CNY528.2B	CNY1100B	CNY4220B	CNY-571.8B
Jul 11, 2023	CNY4220B	CNY3000B	CNY1560B	CNY1220B
Jun 13, 2023	CNY1560B	CNY2000B	CNY1220B	CNY-440B
May 11, 2023	CNY1220B	CNY2000B	CNY5380B	CNY-780B
Apr 11, 2023	CNY5380B	CNY4500B	CNY3160B	CNY880B
Mar 10, 2023	CNY3160B	CNY2200B	CNY5980B	CNY960B
Feb 10, 2023	CNY5980B	CNY5400B	CNY1310B	CNY580B
Jan 10, 2023	CNY1310B	CNY1600B	CNY1990B	CNY-290B
Dec 12, 2022	CNY1990B	CNY2100B	CNY907.9B	CNY-110B
Nov 10, 2022	CNY907.9B	CNY1600B	CNY3530B	CNY-692.1B
Oct 11, 2022	CNY3530B	CNY2725B	CNY2430B	CNY805B
Sep 09, 2022	CNY2430B	CNY2075B	CNY756.1B	CNY355B
Aug 12, 2022	CNY756.1B	CNY1300B	CNY5170B	CNY-543.9B
Jul 11, 2022	CNY5170B	CNY4200B	CNY2790B	CNY970B
Jun 10, 2022	CNY2790B	CNY2015B	CNY910.2B	CNY775B
May 13, 2022	CNY910.2B	CNY2150B	CNY4650B	CNY-1239.8B
Apr 11, 2022	CNY4650B	CNY3700B	CNY1190B	CNY950B
Mar 11, 2022	CNY1190B	CNY2215B	CNY6170B	CNY-1025B
Feb 10, 2022	CNY6170B	CNY5460B	CNY2370B	CNY710B
Jan 12, 2022	CNY2370B	CNY2450B	CNY2610B	CNY-80B
Dec 09, 2021	CNY2610B	CNY2700B	CNY1590B	CNY-90B
Nov 10, 2021	CNY1590B	CNY1600B	CNY2900B	CNY-10B
Oct 13, 2021	CNY2900B	CNY3105B	CNY2960B	CNY-205B
Sep 10, 2021	CNY2960B	CNY2750B	CNY1060B	CNY210B
Aug 11, 2021	CNY1060B	CNY1700B	CNY3670B	CNY-640B
Jul 09, 2021	CNY3670B	CNY2870B	CNY1920B	CNY800B
Jun 10, 2021	CNY1920B	CNY2002.3B	CNY1850B	CNY-82.3B
May 12, 2021	CNY1850B	CNY2250B	CNY3340B	CNY-400B
Apr 12, 2021	CNY3340B	CNY3700B	CNY1710B	CNY-360B
Mar 10, 2021	CNY1710B	CNY950B	CNY5170B	CNY760B
Feb 09, 2021	CNY5170B	CNY4500B	CNY1720B	CNY670B
Jan 12, 2021	CNY1720B	CNY2200B	CNY2130B	CNY-480B
Dec 09, 2020	CNY2130B	CNY2075B	CNY1420B	CNY55B
Nov 11, 2020	CNY1420B	CNY1400B	CNY3480B	CNY20B
Oct 14, 2020	CNY3480B	CNY3150B	CNY3580B	CNY330B
Sep 11, 2020	CNY3580B	CNY2730B	CNY1690B	CNY850B
Aug 11, 2020	CNY1690B	CNY1850B	CNY3430B	CNY-160B
Jul 10, 2020	CNY3430B	CNY3000B	CNY3190B	CNY430B
Jun 10, 2020	CNY3190B	CNY3000B	CNY3090B	CNY190B
May 11, 2020	CNY3090B	CNY2650B	CNY5150B	CNY440B
Apr 10, 2020	CNY5150B	CNY2800B	CNY855B	CNY2350B
Mar 11, 2020	CNY855B	CNY1600B	CNY5070B	CNY-745B
Feb 20, 2020	CNY5070B	CNY4300B	CNY2103B	CNY770B
Jan 16, 2020	CNY2103B	CNY1700B	CNY1994B	CNY403B
Dec 10, 2019	CNY1750B	CNY1500B	CNY618.9B	CNY250B
Nov 11, 2019	CNY618.9B	CNY1000B	CNY2270B	CNY-381.1B
Oct 15, 2019	CNY2270B	CNY1800B	CNY2018B	CNY470B
Sep 11, 2019	CNY1980B	CNY1550B	CNY1010B	CNY430B
Aug 12, 2019	CNY1010B	CNY1500B	CNY2260B	CNY-490B
Jul 12, 2019	CNY2260B	CNY1950B	CNY1400B	CNY310B
Jun 12, 2019	CNY1400B	CNY1410B	CNY1360B	CNY-10B
May 09, 2019	CNY1360B	CNY1700B	CNY2860B	CNY-340B
Apr 12, 2019	CNY2860B	CNY1744B	CNY703B	CNY1116B
Mar 10, 2019	CNY703B	CNY1450B	CNY4640B	CNY-747B
Feb 15, 2019	CNY4640B	CNY3250B	CNY1590B	CNY1390B
Jan 15, 2019	CNY1590B	CNY1200B	CNY1520B	CNY390B
Dec 11, 2018	CNY1520B	CNY1334B	CNY728.8B	CNY186B
Nov 13, 2018	CNY728.8B	CNY2300B	CNY2210B	CNY-1571.2B
Oct 17, 2018	CNY2210B	CNY1530B	CNY1520B	CNY680B
Sep 12, 2018	CNY1520B	CNY1316.9B	CNY1040B	CNY203.1B
Aug 13, 2018	CNY1040B	CNY1200B	CNY1180B	CNY-160B
Jul 13, 2018	CNY1180B	CNY1000B	CNY760.8B	CNY180B
Jun 12, 2018	CNY760.8B	CNY1150B	CNY1560B	CNY-389.2B
May 11, 2018	CNY1560B	CNY968B	CNY1330B	CNY592B
Apr 13, 2018	CNY1330B	CNY1430B	CNY1170B	CNY-100B
Mar 09, 2018	CNY1170B	CNY1500B	CNY3060B	CNY-330B
Feb 12, 2018	CNY3060B	CNY3000B	CNY1140B	CNY60B
Jan 12, 2018	CNY1140B	CNY1200B	CNY1600B	CNY-60B
Dec 11, 2017	CNY1600B	CNY1100B	CNY1040B	CNY500B
Nov 13, 2017	CNY1040B	CNY14893B	CNY1820B	CNY-13853B
Oct 14, 2017	CNY1820B	CNY1500B	CNY1480B	CNY320B
Sep 15, 2017	CNY1480B	CNY1600B	CNY1220B	CNY-120B
Aug 15, 2017	CNY1220B	CNY13450B	CNY1780B	CNY-12230B
Jul 12, 2017	CNY1780B	CNY1300B	CNY1060B	CNY480B
Jun 14, 2017	CNY1060B	CNY1340B	CNY1390B	CNY-280B
May 12, 2017	CNY1390B	CNY1732B	CNY2120B	CNY-342B
Apr 14, 2017	CNY2120B	CNY2026.7B	CNY1150B	CNY93.3B
Mar 09, 2017	CNY1150B	CNY1802.4B	CNY3740B	CNY-652.4B
Feb 14, 2017	CNY3740B	CNY1700B	CNY1630B	CNY2040B
Jan 12, 2017	CNY1630B		CNY1740B
Dec 14, 2016	CNY1740B		CNY896.3B
Nov 11, 2016	CNY896.3B	CNY1211.8B	CNY1720B	CNY-315.5B
Oct 18, 2016	CNY1720B	CNY1304.8B	CNY1470B	CNY415.2B