Canada CAD

Canada Business Outlook Survey Indicator

Impact:
Low
Source: Bank of Canada

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
4.7
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
4
Period: Q3
What Does It Measure?
The Canada Business Outlook Survey Indicator measures the sentiment of Canadian businesses regarding future economic conditions, evaluating factors such as expected sales, investment plans, and employment trends. The primary focus is on how firms perceive the current economic environment while assessing key areas such as production, employment prospects, and pricing power.
Frequency
The survey is conducted quarterly, with the results typically released in the first week of the month following the quarter being assessed, providing a final figure that reflects the consolidated views of participating businesses.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Canada Business Outlook Survey Indicator because it serves as a leading indicator of economic performance, influencing expectations for GDP growth and company earnings. A positive sentiment reported can buoy the Canadian dollar (CAD) and stock markets, while negative readings may lead to bearish sentiments for these assets.
What Is It Derived From?
The indicator is derived from a survey of approximately 100 firms, encompassing various industries across Canada. These firms provide insights through a structured questionnaire, capturing their expectations and sentiments toward business conditions using diffusion indices that gauge the strength of trends.
Description
Preliminary reports from the Canada Business Outlook Survey reflect early sentiment which is subject to revision, while final reports provide an accurate representation of business outlooks based on comprehensive survey responses. The survey’s results are presented through a diffusion index, where an index value above 0 indicates a positive outlook and below indicates a negative sentiment while the focus tends to be on year-over-year comparisons to observe long-term economic trends.
Additional Notes
The Canada Business Outlook Survey Indicator is considered a leading economic measure that helps predict trends in broader economic indicators and informs policy discussions. It is analyzed in comparison to other national surveys, such as consumer confidence indices, to better understand the overall economic trajectory in Canada.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Results higher than expected are usually bullish for CAD and bullish for stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
4.7
4
4.2
3.3
3
0.9
2.9
2.9
1.3