Italy EUR

Italy 30-Year BTP Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
4.7%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.94%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The 30-Year BTP Auction in Italy measures the government's ability to raise funds through the issuance of long-term bonds, specifically the Buoni del Tesoro Poliennali (BTPs) with a maturity of 30 years. It assesses key areas such as investor demand, government borrowing costs, and overall market confidence in Italy's fiscal stability.
Frequency
The auction is typically held on a monthly basis, and the results are finalized shortly after the auction concludes, offering immediate insights into market conditions and investor sentiment.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders focus on this auction because it directly affects Italy's yield curve and borrowing costs, which can influence the country's currency (EUR) and broader financial markets. Strong demand at the auction is considered bullish for the currency and equities, while a lack of interest may signal bearish trends, impacting investor sentiment and future economic forecasts.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from competitive bids placed by institutional and individual investors, with the final yield determined by the demand for the bonds relative to the amount offered by the government. The methodology typically includes a mix of competitive bidding and non-competitive bids, ensuring a broad base of participation.
Description
The auction's preliminary results indicate the initial interest and acceptance of the bonds by the market and are subject to market reactions, while final results provide accurate yield and coverage ratios detailing the actual uptake of the bonds. Month-over-Month (MoM) comparisons can also be insightful to gauge changes in investor sentiment from one auction to the next.
Additional Notes
The 30-Year BTP Auction serves as a coincident indicator of Italy's fiscal health and can influence financial conditions, investor confidence, and funding costs in the eurozone. It also reflects broader economic trends, as its performance can be compared across similar bond auctions in other countries, acting as a barometer for sovereign risk perceptions.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected demand: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
4.7%
3.94%
3.94%
4.04%
4.04%
4.39%
4.39%
4.14%
4.14%
5.05%
5.05%
4.89%
4.89%
4.54%
4.45%
4.2%
4.18%
4.54%
4.78%
4.04%
4.04%
4.23%
4.23%
3.06%
3.06%
2.89%
2.89%
2.162%
1.82%
1.69%
1.69%
2.06%
2.06%
1.47%
1.47%
1.48%
1.48%
1.91%
1.91%
2.49%
2.49%
2.5%
2.29%
2.03%
2.03%
2.06%
2.06%
3.65%
3.65%
3.68%
3.68%
3.79%
3.79%
3.55%
3.55%
3.54%
3.54%
2.88%
2.88%
2.92%
2.92%
3.16%
3.16%
3.33%
3.33%
2.93%
2.93%
3.45%
3.45%
3.32%
3.32%
3.43%
3.42%
3.14%
3.14%
2.28%
2.28%
3.24%
2.96%
3.24%