United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

£-0.47B

GBP

Actual:

£-19.87B

Forecast: £-19.4B

Previous/Revision:

£-20.96B

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Apr

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between the value of exports and imports of goods over a specific period, explicitly assessing the trade position in physical goods rather than services. This report primarily focuses on the trade performance of the UK economy, indicating whether the country is a net exporter or importer, with key indicators including total exports, total imports, and the resulting trade balance figure.

Frequency

The Goods Trade Balance is released monthly, typically published around the second week of each month, providing preliminary estimates that may be revised in later reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Goods Trade Balance closely since it is a crucial indicator of the economic health of the UK, affecting the strength of the British pound and influencing stock market performance. A surplus (more exports than imports) can bolster the currency's value, while a deficit may weaken it and impact investment sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

This economic indicator is derived from customs data, which gather information from businesses about the value and quantity of goods exported and imported. Collecting data involves significant sample sizes from various industries, ensuring comprehensive coverage and accurate reflection of trade activities.

Description

The preliminary report presents early estimates of the Goods Trade Balance, reflecting trade in goods for the previous month, while the final figures come out later, providing a more accurate account. The distinction between preliminary and final reports is crucial, as the former can influence immediate market reactions due to its timeliness, while final data often results in adjustments to initial sentiment as it confirms or adjusts expectations.

Additional Notes

The Goods Trade Balance serves as a coincident economic measure, providing insights into the current state of trade and economic activity in the UK. Comparisons to services balance and overall trade balance reports contribute to understanding broader economic trends and how the UK’s trade positions in relation to other nations, influencing policy and economic forecasts.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 15, 2025	£-19.87B	£-19.4B	£-20.96B	£-0.47B
Apr 11, 2025	£-20.81B	£-17.6B	£-18.22B	£-3.21B
Mar 28, 2025	£-17.85B	£-16.8B	£-19.72B	£-1.05B
Feb 13, 2025	£-17.45B	£-18.4B	£-18.9B	£0.95B
Jan 16, 2025	£-19.31B	£-17.9B	£-19.33B	£-1.41B
Dec 13, 2024	£-18.97B	£-15.5B	£-16.32B	£-3.47B
Nov 15, 2024	£-16.32B	£-16.2B	£-15.21B	£-0.12B
Oct 11, 2024	£-15.06B	£-19.3B	£-18.87B	£4.24B
Sep 11, 2024	£-20B	£-18.1B	£-18.89B	£-1.9B
Aug 15, 2024	£-18.89B	£-16B	£-18.59B	£-2.89B
Jul 11, 2024	£-17.92B	£-16.1B	£-19.44B	£-1.82B
Jun 12, 2024	£-19.61B	£-14.2B	£-13.97B	£-5.41B
May 10, 2024	£-13.97B	£-14.4B	£-14.13B	£0.43B
Apr 12, 2024	£-14.21B	£-14.5B	£-14.1B	£0.29B
Mar 13, 2024	£-14.515B	£-15B	£-13.989B	£0.485B
Feb 15, 2024	£-13.989B	£-14.9B	£-15.125B	£0.911B
Jan 12, 2024	£-14.189B	£-15.7B	£-15.936B	£1.511B
Dec 13, 2023	£-17.032B	£-14.3B	£-14.288B	£-2.732B
Nov 10, 2023	£-14.288B	£-15.3B	£-15.516B	£1.012B
Oct 12, 2023	£-15.95B	£-14.7B	£-13.905B	£-1.25B
Sep 13, 2023	£-14.064B	£-16B	£-15.455B	£1.936B
Aug 11, 2023	£-15.455B	£-16.4B	£-18.411B	£0.945B
Jul 13, 2023	£-18.723B	£-14.7B	£-14.639B	£-4.023B
Jun 14, 2023	£-14.996B	£-16.5B	£-16.356B	£1.504B
May 12, 2023	£-16.356B	£-17.5B	£-16.635B	£1.144B
Apr 13, 2023	£-17.534B	£-17B	£-16.093B	£-0.534B
Mar 10, 2023	£-17.855B	£-17.75B	£-19.271B	£-0.105B
Feb 10, 2023	£-19.271B	£-16.4B	£-14.655B	£-2.871B
Jan 13, 2023	£-15.623B	£-14.9B	£-12.258B	£-0.723B
Dec 12, 2022	£-14.476B	£-15.65B	£-15.656B	£1.174B
Nov 11, 2022	£-15.656B	£-18.75B	£-17.177B	£3.094B
Oct 12, 2022	£-19.257B	£-20.4B	£-17.594B	£1.143B
Sep 12, 2022	£-19.362B	£-22.4B	£-22.847B	£3.038B
Aug 12, 2022	£-22.847B	£-22.3B	£-20.666B	£-0.547B
Jul 13, 2022	£-21.445B	£-21.2B	£-21.522B	£-0.245B
Jun 13, 2022	£-20.893B	£-22.5B	£-23.897B	£1.607B
May 12, 2022	£-23.897B	£-18.5B	£-21.614B	£-5.397B
Apr 11, 2022	£-20.594B	£-20B	£-23.898B	£-0.594B
Mar 11, 2022	£-26.499B	£-12.6B	£-12.354B	£-13.899B
Feb 11, 2022	£-12.354B	£-12.5B	£-12.701B	£0.146B
Jan 14, 2022	£-11.34B	£-14.2B	£-11.81B	£2.86B
Dec 10, 2021	£-13.93B	£-14.059B	£-14.74B	£0.129B
Nov 11, 2021	£-14.736B	£-14.3B	£-13.714B	£-0.436B
Oct 13, 2021	£-14.9B	£-12B	£-14.095B	£-2.9B
Sep 10, 2021	£-12.706B	£-11B	£-11.988B	£-1.706B
Aug 12, 2021	£-11.988B	£-9.1B	£-9.601B	£-2.888B
Jul 09, 2021	£-8.481B	£-11.1B	£-10.95B	£2.619B
Jun 11, 2021	£-10.96B	£-12.1B	£-11.71B	£1.14B
May 12, 2021	£-11.71B	£-14.4B	£-10.51B	£2.69B
Apr 13, 2021	£-16.442B	£-10.4B	£-12.592B	£-6.042B
Mar 12, 2021	£-9.826B	£-12.5B	£-14.315B	£2.674B
Feb 12, 2021	£-14.315B	£-15B	£-14.794B	£0.685B
Jan 15, 2021	£-16.012B	£-10.175B	£-13.9B	£-5.837B
Dec 10, 2020	£-12B	£-9.6B	£-9.35B	£-2.4B
Nov 12, 2020	£-9.35B	£-9.5B	£-6.83B	£0.15B
Oct 09, 2020	£-9.01B	£-9B	£-7.87B	£-0.01B
Sep 11, 2020	£-8.63B	£-6.9B	£-6.55B	£-1.73B
Aug 12, 2020	£-5.12B	£-4.75B	£-2.81B	£-0.37B
Jul 14, 2020	£-2.81B	£-8.1B	£-4.8B	£5.29B
Jun 12, 2020	£-7.49B	£-11.621B	£-11.85B	£4.131B
May 13, 2020	£-12.5B	£-10B	£-9.8B	£-2.5B
Apr 09, 2020	£-11.487B	£-6B	£-5.759B	£-5.487B
Mar 11, 2020	£-3.72B	£-7B	£-1.42B	£3.28B
Feb 11, 2020	£0.85B	£-10B	£-4.95B	£10.85B
Jan 13, 2020	£-5.26B	£-11.7B	£-10.95B	£6.44B
Dec 10, 2019	£-14.49B	£-11.65B	£-11.52B	£-2.84B
Nov 11, 2019	£-12.54B	£-10B	£-10.83B	£-2.54B
Oct 10, 2019	£-9.81B	£-10B	£-9.62B	£0.19B
Sep 09, 2019	£-9.14B	£-9.6B	£-8.92B	£0.46B
Aug 09, 2019	£-7.01B	£-11.8B	£-10.7B	£4.79B