United States USD

United States Balance of Trade

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

$-3.5B

USD

Actual:

$-140.5B

Forecast: $-137B

Previous/Revision:

$-123.2B

Period: Mar

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: $-94B

Period: Apr

What Does It Measure?

The United States Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of goods and services exported from the U.S. and those imported into the country. This indicator reflects trade performance and helps assess the impact of trade on the overall economy, specifically focusing on exports, imports, and the trade deficit or surplus.

Frequency

The Balance of Trade report is released on a monthly basis, typically about 45 days after the end of the reporting month, providing a preliminary estimate that may be revised in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Balance of Trade because it significantly influences currency markets, with a trade deficit generally putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, while a surplus tends to support it. Additionally, the trade balance is a critical component in evaluating overall economic health and can alter investment strategies in stocks and bonds, impacting market sentiment and forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The Balance of Trade is calculated using data collected from various governmental agencies, including the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which compile statistics on international trade. The calculation assesses total exports and imports of goods and services, and it is based on customs data and international business surveys that estimate trade flows.

Description

The Balance of Trade provides insights into the economic relationship between the U.S. and its trading partners, acting as an indicator of global competitiveness and demand for U.S. goods and services. It reflects how the trade dynamics can influence currency valuations and economic policies, forming an integral part of broader macroeconomic analyses.

Additional Notes

The Balance of Trade is considered a lagging economic indicator, as it reflects past trade activities rather than predicting future trends. An increased trade deficit could indicate weakness in domestic production and higher reliance on foreign goods, while a surplus might suggest strong domestic industries and competitive exports, influencing not just the U.S. economy but also the global economic landscape.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 06, 2025	$-140.5B	$-137B	$-123.2B	$-3.5B
Apr 03, 2025	$-122.7B	$-123.5B	$-130.7B	$0.8B
Mar 06, 2025	$-131.4B	$-127.4B	$-98.1B	$-4B
Feb 05, 2025	$-98.4B	$-96.6B	$-78.9B	$-1.8B
Jan 07, 2025	$-78.2B	$-78B	$-73.6B	$-0.2B
Dec 05, 2024	$-73.8B	$-75B	$-83.8B	$1.2B
Nov 05, 2024	$-84.4B	$-84.1B	$-70.8B	$-0.3B
Oct 08, 2024	$-70.4B	$-70.6B	$-78.9B	$0.2B
Sep 04, 2024	$-78.8B	$-79B	$-73B	$0.2B
Aug 06, 2024	$-73.1B	$-72.5B	$-75B	$-0.6B
Jul 03, 2024	$-75.1B	$-76.2B	$-74.5B	$1.1B
Jun 06, 2024	$-74.6B	$-76.1B	$-68.6B	$1.5B
May 02, 2024	$-69.4B	$-69.1B	$-69.5B	$-0.3B
Apr 04, 2024	$-68.9B	$-67.3B	$-67.6B	$-1.6B
Mar 07, 2024	$-67.4B	$-63.5B	$-64.2B	$-3.9B
Feb 07, 2024	$-62.2B	$-62.2B	$-61.9B
Jan 09, 2024	$-63.2B	$-65B	$-64.5B	$1.8B
Dec 06, 2023	$-64.3B	$-64.2B	$-61.2B	$-0.1B
Nov 07, 2023	$-61.5B	$-59.9B	$-58.7B	$-1.6B
Oct 05, 2023	$-58.3B	$-62.3B	$-64.7B	$4B
Sep 06, 2023	$-65B	$-68B	$-63.7B	$3B
Aug 08, 2023	$-65.5B	$-65B	$-68.3B	$-0.5B
Jul 06, 2023	$-69B	$-69B	$-74.4B
Jun 07, 2023	$-74.6B	$-75.2B	$-60.6B	$0.6B
May 04, 2023	$-64.2B	$-63.3B	$-70.6B	$-0.9B
Apr 05, 2023	$-70.5B	$-69B	$-68.7B	$-1.5B
Mar 08, 2023	$-68.3B	$-68.9B	$-67.2B	$0.6B
Feb 07, 2023	$-67.4B	$-68.5B	$-61B	$1.1B
Jan 05, 2023	$-61.5B	$-73B	$-77.8B	$11.5B
Dec 06, 2022	$-78.2B	$-80B	$-74.1B	$1.8B
Nov 03, 2022	$-73.3B	$-72.2B	$-65.7B	$-1.1B
Oct 05, 2022	$-67.4B	$-67.7B	$-70.5B	$0.3B
Sep 07, 2022	$-70.7B	$-70.3B	$-80.9B	$-0.4B
Aug 04, 2022	$-79.6B	$-80.1B	$-84.9B	$0.5B
Jul 07, 2022	$-85.5B	$-84.9B	$-86.7B	$-0.6B
Jun 07, 2022	$-87.1B	$-89.5B	$-107.7B	$2.4B
May 04, 2022	$-109.8B	$-107B	$-89.8B	$-2.8B
Apr 05, 2022	$-89.2B	$-88.5B	$-89.2B	$-0.7B
Mar 08, 2022	$-89.7B	$-87.1B	$-82B	$-2.6B
Feb 08, 2022	$-80.7B	$-83B	$-79.3B	$2.3B
Jan 06, 2022	$-80.2B	$-77.1B	$-67.2B	$-3.1B
Dec 07, 2021	$-67.1B	$-66.8B	$-81.4B	$-0.3B
Nov 04, 2021	$-80.9B	$-80.5B	$-72.8B	$-0.4B
Oct 05, 2021	$-73.3B	$-70.5B	$-70.3B	$-2.8B
Sep 02, 2021	$-70B	$-71B	$-73.2B	$1B
Aug 05, 2021	$-75.7B	$-73.9B	$-71B	$-1.8B
Jul 02, 2021	$-71.2B	$-71.4B	$-69.1B	$0.2B
Jun 08, 2021	$-68.9B	$-69B	$-75B	$0.1B
May 04, 2021	$-74.4B	$-74.5B	$-70.5B	$0.1B
Apr 07, 2021	$-71.1B	$-70.5B	$-67.8B	$-0.6B
Mar 05, 2021	$-68.2B	$-67.5B	$-67B	$-0.7B
Feb 05, 2021	$-66.6B	$-65.7B	$-69B	$-0.9B
Jan 07, 2021	$-68.1B	$-65.2B	$-63.1B	$-2.9B
Dec 04, 2020	$-63.1B	$-64.8B	$-62.1B	$1.7B
Nov 04, 2020	$-63.9B	$-63.8B	$-67B	$-0.1B
Oct 06, 2020	$-67.1B	$-66.1B	$-63.4B	$-1B
Sep 03, 2020	$-63.6B	$-58B	$-53.5B	$-5.6B
Aug 05, 2020	$-50.7B	$-50.1B	$-54.8B	$-0.6B
Jul 02, 2020	$-54.6B	$-53B	$-49.8B	$-1.6B
Jun 04, 2020	$-49.4B	$-49B	$-42.3B	$-0.4B
May 05, 2020	$-44.4B	$-44B	$-39.8B	$-0.4B
Apr 02, 2020	$-39.9B	$-40B	$-45.5B	$0.1B
Mar 06, 2020	$-45.3B	$-46.1B	$-48.6B	$0.8B
Feb 05, 2020	$-48.9B	$-48.2B	$-43.7B	$-0.7B
Jan 07, 2020	$-43.1B	$-43.8B	$-46.9B	$0.7B
Dec 05, 2019	$-47.2B	$-48.7B	$-51.1B	$1.5B
Nov 05, 2019	$-52.5B	$-52.5B	$-55B
Oct 04, 2019	$-54.9B	$-54.5B	$-54B	$-0.4B
Sep 04, 2019	$-54B	$-53.5B	$-55.5B	$-0.5B
Aug 02, 2019	$-55.2B	$-54.6B	$-55.3B	$-0.6B
Jul 03, 2019	$-55.5B	$-54B	$-51.2B	$-1.5B
Jun 06, 2019	$-50.8B	$-50.7B	$-51.9B	$-0.1B
May 09, 2019	$-50B	$-50.2B	$-49.3B	$0.2B
Apr 17, 2019	$-49.4B	$-53.5B	$-51.1B	$4.1B
Mar 27, 2019	$-51.1B	$-57B	$-59.9B	$5.9B
Mar 06, 2019	$-59.8B	$-57.9B	$-50.3B	$-1.9B
Feb 06, 2019	$-49.3B	$-54B	$-55.7B	$4.7B
Dec 06, 2018	$-55.5B	$-54.9B	$-54.6B	$-0.6B
Nov 02, 2018	$-54B	$-53.6B	$-53.3B	$-0.4B
Oct 05, 2018	$-53.2B	$-53.5B	$-50B	$0.3B
Sep 05, 2018	$-50.1B	$-50.3B	$-45.7B	$0.2B
Aug 03, 2018	$-46.3B	$-46.5B	$-43.2B	$0.2B
Jul 06, 2018	$-43.1B	$-43.7B	$-46.1B	$0.6B
Jun 06, 2018	$-46.2B	$-49B	$-47.2B	$2.8B
May 03, 2018	$-49B	$-50B	$-57.7B	$1B
Apr 05, 2018	$-57.6B	$-56.9B	$-56.7B	$-0.7B
Mar 07, 2018	$-56.6B	$-55.1B	$-53.9B	$-1.5B
Feb 06, 2018	$-53.1B	$-52B	$-50.4B	$-1.1B
Jan 05, 2018	$-50.5B	$-49.5B	$-48.9B	$-1B
Dec 05, 2017	$-48.7B	$-47.5B	$-44.9B	$-1.2B
Nov 03, 2017	$-43.5B	$-43.2B	$-42.8B	$-0.3B
Oct 05, 2017	$-42.4B	$-42.7B	$-43.6B	$0.3B
Sep 06, 2017	$-43.7B	$-44.6B	$-43.5B	$0.9B
Aug 04, 2017	$-43.6B	$-45B	$-46.4B	$1.4B
Jul 06, 2017	$-46.5B	$-46.2B	$-47.6B	$-0.3B
Jun 02, 2017	$-47.6B	$-46.1B	$-45.3B	$-1.5B
May 04, 2017	$-43.7B	$-44.5B	$-43.8B	$0.8B
Apr 04, 2017	$-43.6B	$-44.8B	$-48.2B	$1.2B
Mar 07, 2017	$-48.5B	$-48.5B	$-44.3B
Feb 07, 2017	$-44.3B	$-45B	$-45.7B	$0.7B
Jan 06, 2017	$-45.2B	$-54B	$-42.4B	$8.8B
Dec 06, 2016	$-42.6B	$-41.8B	$-36.2B	$-0.8B
Nov 04, 2016	$-36.44B	$-37.8B	$-40.46B	$1.36B
Oct 05, 2016	$-40.73B	$-39.3B	$-39.55B	$-1.43B
Sep 02, 2016	$-39.47B	$-42.7B	$-44.66B	$3.23B
Aug 05, 2016	$-44.51B	$-43.1B	$-40.96B	$-1.41B
Jul 06, 2016	$-41.14B	$-40B	$-37.4B	$-1.14B
Jun 03, 2016	$-37.4B	$-41.3B	$-35.5B	$3.9B
May 04, 2016	$-40.44B	$-41.5B	$-46.96B	$1.06B
Apr 05, 2016	$-47.06B	$-46.2B	$-45.88B	$-0.86B
Mar 04, 2016	$-45.68B	$-44B	$-44.7B	$-1.68B
Feb 05, 2016	$-43.36B	$-43B	$-42.23B	$-0.36B
Jan 06, 2016	$-42.37B	$-44B	$-44.58B	$1.63B
Dec 04, 2015	$-43.89B	$-40.5B	$-42.64B	$-3.39B
Nov 04, 2015	$-40.81B	$-41.1B	$-48.02B	$0.29B
Oct 06, 2015	$-48.33B	$-47.4B	$-41.81B	$-0.93B
Sep 03, 2015	$-41.86B	$-42.4B	$-45.21B	$0.54B
Aug 05, 2015	$-43.84B	$-42.8B	$-40.94B	$-1.04B
Jul 07, 2015	$-41.87B	$-42.6B	$-40.7B	$0.73B
Jun 03, 2015	$-40.88B	$-44B	$-50.57B	$3.12B
May 05, 2015	$-51.37B	$-40.3B	$-35.89B	$-11.07B