United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Chancellor of the Exchequer Mansion House Speech

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The Chancellor of the Exchequer's Mansion House Speech measures the UK government's stance on economic policy and fiscal direction, focusing on key issues such as taxation, public spending, and financial regulation. It is a significant national indicator that assesses the government's priorities and economic outlook, influencing perceptions about growth, investment, and stability.
Frequency
The Mansion House Speech is delivered annually, typically in June, and is often viewed as a key policy statement rather than a report with preliminary or final figures.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the Mansion House Speech because it directly impacts market sentiment, particularly regarding UK inflation, interest rates, and fiscal policy. Changes or hints towards policy adjustments can lead to significant movements in currency, equities, and bonds, affecting the value of the British pound and the stock market.
What Is It Derived From?
The speech is derived from the Chancellor of the Exchequer's analysis of the economic landscape, involving consultations with various economic advisors and stakeholders such as businesses and financial institutions. It reflects current economic data and trends, but it does not rely on quantitative measures like surveys or indices; instead, it is primarily a qualitative analysis.
Description
The Mansion House Speech outlines the UK government's monetary and fiscal strategies, presenting the Chancellor's insights on current economic challenges and future growth prospects. Since it is a high-profile address that sets the tone for the year ahead, market participants often use it to gauge future government actions regarding tax policies, public spending, and regulatory changes, which can influence investment decisions.
Additional Notes
This speech serves primarily as a leading indicator of economic policy, often setting the stage for future fiscal measures and influencing broader economic conditions. Its content can have ripple effects on international markets, particularly for countries that have strong economic ties with the UK.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise