New Zealand NZD

New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Australia and New Zealand Banking Group

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-4.6

Actual:

92.9

Forecast: 97.5

Previous/Revision:

98.3

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 91

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index measures the sentiment of consumers in New Zealand regarding their financial situation and the overall economy. It assesses key areas such as household spending intentions, job prospects, and general economic outlook, with values above 100 indicating optimism and below indicating pessimism.

Frequency

This index is released monthly, typically in the first week of each month, providing insights based on surveys conducted in the preceding month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to consumer confidence because it serves as a leading indicator for economic growth; higher confidence usually correlates with increased consumer spending, which can positively impact currencies and equities. Conversely, lower confidence readings may dampen market sentiment, leading to bearish trends in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey conducted with a representative sample of around 1,000 New Zealand households, asking respondents about their perceptions of financial conditions and spending intentions. The calculation employs a diffusion index methodology, which aggregates positive, neutral, and negative responses to create a comprehensive measure of consumer sentiment.

Description

Preliminary and final reports play a critical role in the ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index; the preliminary data, released soon after the survey period, is based on early estimates and may be subject to revision, while final data provides a more accurate reflection of consumer sentiment but is published later. The index assesses consumer attitudes month-over-month (MoM), allowing for the identification of short-term shifts in consumer behavior, which are crucial for traders to gauge immediate market implications.

Additional Notes

The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index acts as a leading economic indicator, often correlating with future consumer spending trends, which directly affects GDP growth. It is significant to monitor in conjunction with other economic reports, such as retail sales and employment data, to better understand the overall economic landscape in New Zealand.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If actual consumer confidence results are higher than expected: Bullish for NZD, Bullish for Stocks. If lower than expected: Bearish for NZD, Bearish for Stocks. The tone is generally dovish if consumer confidence declines, signaling potential economic support and is usually good for the NZD but bad for Stocks due to concerns about reduced consumer spending.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 29, 2025	92.9	97.5	98.3	-4.6
Apr 23, 2025	98.3	92	93.2	6.3
Mar 27, 2025	93.2	95	96.6	-1.8
Feb 27, 2025	96.6	98	96	-1.4
Jan 30, 2025	96	101.9	100.2	-5.9
Dec 19, 2024	100.2	105	99.8	-4.8
Nov 28, 2024	99.8	94	91.2	5.8
Oct 24, 2024	91.2	98	95.1	-6.8
Sep 26, 2024	95.1	101	92.2	-5.9
Aug 29, 2024	92.2	88.5	87.9	3.7
Jul 25, 2024	87.9	83.2	83.2	4.7
Jun 26, 2024	83	84.2	84.9	-1.2
May 23, 2024	84.9	80	82.1	4.9
Apr 25, 2024	82.1	89	86.4	-6.9
Mar 27, 2024	86.4	97	94.5	-10.6
Feb 29, 2024	94.5	96	93.6	-1.5
Feb 01, 2024	93.6	94	93.1	-0.4
Dec 19, 2023	93.1	89	91.9	4.1
Nov 30, 2023	91.9	88.9	88.1	3
Oct 26, 2023	88.1	82.6	86.4	5.5
Sep 28, 2023	86.4	81.5	85	4.9
Aug 31, 2023	85	82	83.7	3
Jul 27, 2023	83.7	87.5	85.5	-3.8
Jun 29, 2023	85.5	77	79.2	8.5
May 25, 2023	79.2	81.5	79.3	-2.3
Apr 27, 2023	79.3	78	77.7	1.3
Mar 30, 2023	77.7	81.5	79.8	-3.8
Mar 02, 2023	79.8	86	83.4	-6.2
Feb 02, 2023	83.4	76	73.8	7.4
Dec 20, 2022	73.8	82	80.7	-8.2
Nov 24, 2022	80.7	85.1	85.4	-4.4
Oct 27, 2022	85.4	86.6	85.4	-1.2
Sep 29, 2022	85.4	86	85.4	-0.6
Aug 25, 2022	85.4	80	81.9	5.4
Jul 28, 2022	81.9	79	80.5	2.9
Jun 30, 2022	80.5	80	82.3	0.5
May 26, 2022	82.3	83	84.4	-0.7
Apr 28, 2022	84.4	78.5	77.9	5.9
Mar 31, 2022	77.9	78.1	81.7	-0.2
Mar 03, 2022	81.7	99	97.7	-17.3
Jan 27, 2022	97.7	99	98.3	-1.3
Dec 27, 2021	98.3	102	96.6	-3.7
Nov 25, 2021	97	100	98	-3
Oct 28, 2021	98	107	104.5	-9
Sep 30, 2021	104.5	106	109.6	-1.5
Aug 26, 2021	109.6	115	113.1	-5.4
Jul 29, 2021	113.1	113	114.1	0.1
Jul 01, 2021	114	115	114	-1
May 27, 2021	114	116	115.4	-2
Apr 29, 2021	115.4		110.8
Mar 31, 2021	111	109.5	113.1	1.5
Feb 25, 2021	113.1	115	113.8	-1.9
Jan 28, 2021	114		112
Dec 17, 2020	112	107.4	106.9	4.6
Nov 26, 2020	106.9		108.7
Oct 29, 2020	108.7		100
Oct 01, 2020	100	99.9	100.2	0.1
Aug 27, 2020	100.2	104	104.3	-3.8
Jul 30, 2020	104.3	106	104.5	-1.7
Jun 25, 2020	104.5	98.5	97.3	6
May 29, 2020	97.3	90	84.8	7.3
May 01, 2020	84.8	95	106.3	-10.2
Mar 26, 2020	106	118	122	-12
Feb 27, 2020	122	121	123	1
Jan 30, 2020	123	120	123	3
Dec 19, 2019	123	119	121	4
Nov 28, 2019	121	116	118	5
Oct 31, 2019	118	111	114	7
Sep 26, 2019	114	115	118	-1
Aug 29, 2019	118	113	116	5
Aug 01, 2019	116	120	123	-4
Jun 27, 2019	123	121	119	2
May 30, 2019	115	125	123	-10
Apr 25, 2019	123	123	122
Mar 28, 2019	122	119	121	3
Feb 28, 2019	121	124	122	-3
Jan 31, 2019	122	124	122	-2
Dec 20, 2018	122	117	119	5
Nov 29, 2018	119	114	115	5
Nov 01, 2018	115	119	118	-4
Sep 27, 2018	118	117	118	1
Aug 30, 2018	118	117	118	1
Jul 26, 2018	118	119	120	-1
Jun 28, 2018	120		121
Jun 01, 2018	121		120.5
Apr 26, 2018	120.5		128
Apr 03, 2018	128		127.7
Mar 01, 2018	127.7	126.2	126.9	1.5
Feb 02, 2018	126.9	122.4	121.8	4.5
Dec 18, 2017	121.8	123.2	123.7	-1.4
Nov 16, 2017	123.7		126.3
Oct 12, 2017	126.3	130	129.9	-3.7
Sep 14, 2017	129.9	126.5	126.2	3.4
Aug 17, 2017	126.2		125.4
Jul 13, 2017	125.4	127.4	127.8	-2
Jun 20, 2017	127.8	124.2	123.9	3.6
May 18, 2017	123.9	122.5	121.7	1.4
Apr 21, 2017	121.7		125.2
Mar 17, 2017	125.2	127.8	127.4	-2.6
Feb 17, 2017	127.4		128.7
Jan 19, 2017	128.7		124.5
Dec 16, 2016	124.5		127.2