China CNY

China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Impact:
Low
Source: People's Bank of China

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
2%
Forecast: 2%
Previous/Revision:
2%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 2%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) 1-Year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) announcement measures the central bank's monetary policy stance and liquidity provision for financial institutions. This event primarily focuses on the rate and volume of funds supplied to banks, influencing overall credit availability, economic activity, and interest rates within China.
Frequency
The MLF announcement occurs monthly, typically released during the middle of the month, and represents a final figure as it reflects the PBoC's established monetary policy decisions.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders and investors scrutinize the MLF announcement because it signals the central bank's approach to monetary policy, impacting expectations on interest rates and financial liquidity. A lower MLF rate generally indicates a dovish policy stance, encouraging risk-taking in equities and affecting currency values, while a higher rate may tighten liquidity and negatively affect stock markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The MLF rate is derived from the central bank's monetary policy deliberations considering various economic indicators, including inflation rates, GDP growth, and financial stability. The data incorporates inputs from banks, reflecting their credit demand and the broader economic environment, and is calculated based on the target amount that banks are allowed to borrow, typically using auction-style mechanisms.
Description
The PBoC's MLF serves as a vital tool for managing liquidity and guiding market expectations. Unlike other reports that may focus on a broader range of economic indicators, the MLF is narrowly concerned with the cost and availability of credit to domestic banks, directly influencing lending rates and economic growth.
Additional Notes
The MLF is acknowledged as a leading economic indicator as it provides insight into the PBoC's future policy directions. Changes in the MLF can have far-reaching implications, influencing other interest rates and shaping financial market expectations both domestically and globally.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the CNY but bad for Stocks due to increased risk appetite among investors.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Dec 25, 2024
2%
 2%
2%
Nov 25, 2024
2%
 2%
2%
Oct 25, 2024
2%
 2%
2%
Sep 25, 2024
2%
 2%
2.3%
Aug 26, 2024
2.3%
2.3%
Jul 25, 2024
2.3%
2.5%
Jul 15, 2024
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
Jun 17, 2024
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
May 15, 2024
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
Apr 15, 2024
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
Mar 15, 2024
2.5%
 2.4%
2.5%
 0.1%
Feb 18, 2024
2.5%
2.5%
Jan 15, 2024
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
Dec 15, 2023
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
Nov 15, 2023
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
Oct 16, 2023
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
Sep 15, 2023
2.5%
 2.5%
2.5%
Aug 15, 2023
2.5%
2.65%
Jul 17, 2023
2.65%
 2.65%
2.65%
Jun 15, 2023
2.65%
 2.65%
2.75%
May 15, 2023
2.75%
 2.75%
2.75%
Apr 17, 2023
2.75%
 2.75%
2.75%
Mar 15, 2023
2.75%
 2.75%
2.75%
Feb 15, 2023
2.75%
 2.75%
2.75%
Dec 15, 2022
2.75%
2.75%
Nov 15, 2022
2.75%
 2.75%
2.75%
Oct 17, 2022
2.75%
2.75%
Sep 15, 2022
2.75%
2.75%