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Canada CAD

Canada Alberta General Election

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
 
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:  
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The Alberta General Election measures the electoral outcomes and voting behavior in the province of Alberta, Canada, specifically focusing on the selection of members for the Legislative Assembly. It assesses voter turnout, party representation, and the political landscape, which can impact governance and policy directions across various sectors, including health, education, and energy.
Frequency
The event occurs at least once every four years, although earlier elections can be called; the results are reported shortly after the polls close, typically on election day itself.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders are interested in the Alberta General Election as it can significantly impact provincial policies and economic outlooks, which in turn affect investments in local businesses, commodities, and publicly traded firms. Changes in political leadership may influence key economic indicators, thereby impacting currency valuation and overall market sentiment.
What Is It Derived From?
The election results are derived from popular votes cast by eligible voters across Alberta, collected through a structured voting process overseen by Elections Alberta. Data are gathered from polling stations and counted using both manual and electronic systems, ensuring a comprehensive and representative sampling of voter preferences.
Description
The Alberta General Election is characterized by its preliminary results, which are typically announced on election night and based on initial vote counts, while final results are confirmed in the days following the election, accounting for any mail-in or outstanding ballots. This event is notable for its MoM comparison indirectly, as it is analyzed alongside previous election cycles to gauge shifts in political sentiment and policy preferences over time.
Additional Notes
As a leading measure of political change, the Alberta General Election reflects broader trends in public sentiment and governance. It can serve as an indicator for economic stability and confidence in provincial policies, influencing not just local markets but potentially affecting national economic trends.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
The impact of the Alberta General Election is contingent on the outcome relative to forecasts; should a result be considered favorable for business and economic policies, it might be perceived as bullish for the Canadian dollar (CAD) and stocks in Alberta. Conversely, if the results indicate a shift towards policies seen as unfavorable, this could be bearish for the CAD and local equities.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
May 31, 2019