United States USD

United States ADP Employment Change

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-78K

USD

Actual:

37K

Forecast: 115K

Previous/Revision:

60K

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 90K

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The ADP Employment Change measures the monthly change in non-farm private employment in the United States, focusing specifically on the employment levels across various industries. It provides insights into employment trends, hiring conditions, and helps gauge economic performance by assessing labor market dynamics.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically on the first Wednesday of the month as a preliminary estimate for the preceding month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the ADP Employment Change as it serves as an informal preview of the more comprehensive Non-Farm Payroll report. Stronger-than-expected employment figures can lead to bullish sentiment for the USD and equities, while disappointing results might prompt bearish reactions across financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The ADP Employment Change is derived from payroll data collected through a survey of around 500,000 U.S. businesses, which captures information on employment changes and trends. This data is processed to create a statistically significant estimate of employment shifts, utilizing methodologies that reflect variations across different sectors.

Description

Preliminary reports of the ADP Employment Change are based on early estimates and can be revised, while final data is published later for more comprehensive accuracy. The report's monthly comparisons (MoM) are crucial for identifying immediate shifts in labor market conditions, making it a valuable tool for economic forecasting.

Additional Notes

The ADP Employment Change is considered a leading indicator, often correlating with broader labor market trends and economic health assessments. It is useful for analysts observing economic conditions both regionally within the United States and in comparison to other nations' employment indicators.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 04, 2025	37K	115K	60K	-78K
Apr 30, 2025	62K	115K	147K	-53K
Apr 02, 2025	155K	105K	84K	50K
Mar 05, 2025	77K	140K	186K	-63K
Feb 05, 2025	183K	150K	176K	33K
Jan 08, 2025	122K	140K	146K	-18K
Dec 04, 2024	146K	150K	184K	-4K
Oct 30, 2024	233K	115K	159K	118K
Oct 02, 2024	143K	120K	103K	23K
Sep 05, 2024	99K	145K	111K	-46K
Jul 31, 2024	122K	150K	155K	-28K
Jul 03, 2024	150K	160K	157K	-10K
Jun 05, 2024	152K	175K	188K	-23K
May 01, 2024	192K	175K	208K	17K
Apr 03, 2024	184K	148K	155K	36K
Mar 06, 2024	140K	150K	111K	-10K
Jan 31, 2024	107K	145K	158K	-38K
Jan 04, 2024	164K	115K	101K	49K
Jan 05, 2023	235K	150K	182K	85K
Jan 05, 2022	807K	400K	505K	407K
Jan 06, 2021	-123K	88K	304K	-211K
Jan 08, 2020	202K	160K	124K	42K
Jan 03, 2019	271K	178K	157K	93K
Jan 04, 2018	250K	190K	185K	60K
Jan 05, 2017	153K	170K	215K	-17K