United States USD

United States 30-Year Bond Auction

Impact:
Low
Source: Federal Reserve

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
4.819%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
4.813%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States 30-Year Bond Auction measures the demand for long-term government bonds issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It primarily focuses on assessing investor appetite for 30-year debt securities, which reflects confidence in the economy and interest rate expectations, with key indicators including bid-to-cover ratio and yield.
Frequency
The auction occurs on a monthly basis, typically scheduled for mid-month, and the results are reported shortly after the auction concludes.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the 30-Year Bond Auction as it indicates market sentiment regarding interest rates and economic stability, directly influencing the price of U.S. Treasury bonds. A strong auction with high bid-to-cover ratios can buoy investor confidence, impacting equities and the U.S. dollar positively.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from competitive and non-competitive bids submitted by institutional and retail investors. The yield is determined by the highest accepted bid, while the bid-to-cover ratio reflects the proportion of demand relative to the amount offered.
Description
The primary focus of the 30-Year Bond Auction lies in the price and yield of the bonds sold, with preliminary data highlighting immediate market reactions to demand levels and subsequent interest rates. Preliminary reports reflect initial auction outcomes, while final data, released later, provides a comprehensive view of total sold amounts and yields with adjustments made post-auction.
Additional Notes
This auction serves as a leading indicator of long-term interest rates and is significantly watched by economists and traders alike due to its implications for fiscal policy and economic growth. It also acts as a gauge for broader market trends in the fixed-income space and influences trading strategies worldwide.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
4.819%
4.813%
4.813%
4.623%
4.623%
4.748%
4.748%
4.913%
4.913%
4.535%
4.535%
4.608%
4.608%
4.389%
4.389%
4.015%
4.015%
4.314%
4.314%
4.405%
4.405%
4.403%
4.403%
4.635%
4.635%
4.671%
4.671%
4.331%
4.331%
4.36%
4.36%
4.229%
4.229%
4.344%
4.344%
4.769%
4.769%
4.837%
4.837%
4.125%
4.125%
4.189%
4.189%
3.91%
3.91%
3.908%
3.908%
3.741%
3.741%
3.661%
3.661%
3.877%
3.877%
3.686%
3.686%
3.585%
3.585%
3.513%
3.513%
4.08%
4.08%
3.93%
3.93%
3.511%
3.511%
3.106%
3.106%
3.115%
3.115%
3.185%
3.185%
2.997%
2.997%
2.815%
2.815%
2.357%
2.357%
2.34%
2.34%
2.075%
2.075%
1.895%
1.895%
1.94%
1.94%
2.049%
2.049%
1.91%
1.91%
2.04%
2.04%
2%
2%
2.172%
2.172%
2.395%
2.395%
2.32%
2.32%
2.295%
2.295%
1.933%
1.933%
1.825%
1.825%
1.665%
1.665%
1.68%
1.68%
1.578%
1.578%
1.473%
1.473%
1.406%
1.406%
1.33%
1.33%
1.45%
1.45%
1.342%
1.342%
1.325%
1.325%
1.32%
1.32%
2.061%
2.061%
2.341%
2.341%
2.307%
2.307%
2.43%
2.43%
2.17%
2.17%
2.27%
2.27%
2.335%
2.335%
2.644%
2.644%
2.607%
2.607%
2.892%
2.892%
2.93%
2.93%
3.014%
3.014%
3.022%
3.022%
3.04%
3.04%
3.165%
3.165%
3.418%
3.418%
3.344%
3.344%
3.088%
3.088%
3.09%
3.09%
2.958%
2.958%
3.1%
3.1%
3.13%
3.13%
3.044%
3.044%
3.109%
3.109%
3.121%
3.121%
2.867%
2.867%
2.804%
2.804%
2.801%
2.801%
2.87%
2.87%
2.79%
2.79%
2.818%
2.818%
2.936%
2.936%
2.87%
2.87%
3.05%
3.05%
2.938%
2.938%
3.08%
3.17%
-0.142%
3.17%
3.05%
3.005%
0.12%
3.005%
2.94%
2.914%
0.065%
2.914%
3.152%
3.152%
2.902%
2.902%
2.47%
2.47%
2.475%
2.475%
2.274%
2.274%
2.172%
2.172%
2.475%
2.475%
2.615%
2.615%
2.596%
2.596%
2.77%
2.72%
-0.174%
2.72%
2.53%
2.5%
0.19%
2.5%
2.86%
2.905%
-0.36%
2.905%
2.978%
2.978%
3.07%
3.07%
2.914%
2.914%
2.98%
2.98%
2.88%
2.88%
3.084%
3.084%
3.138%
3.138%
3.044%
3.044%
2.597%