United States USD

United States 30-Day Bill Auction

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States 30-Day Bill Auction measures the demand for short-term government debt, specifically 30-day Treasury bills, which assess the liquidity and health of the public's investment sentiment in U.S. government securities. Key indicators include the yield on the bills and the bid-to-cover ratio, with yields reflecting the cost of borrowing for the government and bid-to-cover ratio indicating investor demand.
Frequency
This auction occurs on a regular basis, typically offered weekly, with results released promptly after the auction concludes, providing immediate insights into market conditions and investor appetite.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the 30-Day Bill Auction closely as its results can indicate investor confidence in the U.S. economy and influence interest rates across various asset classes, including currencies, stocks, and bonds. Strong auction results typically signal bullish sentiment, leading to lower yields, while weak results might raise concerns, promoting bearish adjustments in the financial markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction's results are derived from bids submitted by various market participants, including banks, institutional investors, and individual investors. The auction employs a competitive bidding process wherein participants specify the quantity of bills they wish to purchase and the yield they are willing to accept, and the final yield is determined based on demand.
Description
Initial results of the auction provide a preliminary assessment of market conditions, with the final results becoming available later, offering a more accurate picture of the auction's reception. The auction is essential for establishing the benchmark for short-term interest rates, with a focus on the demand relative to the offered amount.
Additional Notes
The 30-Day Bill Auction serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current investor sentiment and liquidity preferences in the economy. Its results can also be compared against other treasury auctions, such as longer-dated securities, to gauge broader trends in government borrowing and investor confidence.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected demand in the auction is typically bullish for the USD due to increased confidence in government securities and indicates potential bullish sentiment for stocks. Conversely, lower than expected demand can be bearish for the USD and stocks as it signals weak investor confidence and may lead to a reassessment of economic conditions.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise