Canada CAD

Canada 3-Year Bond Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3.666%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.449%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The 3-Year Bond Auction in Canada measures the success of the government in issuing 3-year treasury bonds and reflects market demand for this debt instrument. The primary focus is on the yield at which the bonds are sold, investor participation, and the overall demand for Canadian government securities, serving as a key indicator of government financing costs and investor confidence.
Frequency
This auction occurs on a quarterly basis, with results released shortly after the auction completes, typically on the same day.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the 3-Year Bond Auction because the results can influence interest rates and reflect the overall health of the fixed income market. A successful auction generally indicates strong demand for bonds, potentially leading to a bullish sentiment for the Canadian dollar and equities, whereas weaker demand could result in a bearish outlook.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from competitive and non-competitive bids submitted by institutional and retail investors, with bids indicating the price and quantity of bonds buyers are willing to purchase. The final yield is determined by the highest rate at which the government can sell the required amount of bonds.
Description
This event features both preliminary results, typically shared within hours of the auction's conclusion, and final results released later to confirm the auction details. The analysis of yields is typically expressed as MoM (month-over-month), reflecting any immediate changes in the bond market's risk appetite and government financing conditions.
Additional Notes
The 3-Year Bond Auction serves as a coincident economic measure, providing timely insight into government financing capabilities and broader economic conditions in Canada. It is often compared to other bond maturities and auctions, highlighting shifts in investor sentiment and expectations regarding inflation or interest rates.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
May 17, 2023
3.666%
3.449%
Apr 24, 2023
3.449%
3.765%
Feb 15, 2023
3.765%
3.177%
Jan 18, 2023
3.177%
3.779%
Nov 17, 2022
3.779%
4.137%
Oct 20, 2022
4.137%
3.26%
Aug 18, 2022
3.26%
3.224%
Jul 21, 2022
3.224%
3.31%
Jun 22, 2022
3.31%
2.72%
Apr 20, 2022
2.72%
1.961%
Mar 17, 2022
1.961%
1.583%
Jan 20, 2022
1.583%
1.304%