United States USD

United States 3-Year Note Auction

Impact:
Low
Source: Federal Reserve

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3.824%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.784%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States 3-Year Note Auction measures the demand for U.S. Treasury securities with a maturity of three years, assessing investor appetite for government debt and indicating market confidence in the economic outlook. This auction specifically focuses on the yield, or interest rate, investors require to hold these securities, influencing overall borrowing costs and capital market conditions.
Frequency
This auction occurs quarterly, and the results are typically released on the first Tuesday of the auction month followed by updates on bidding results and bid-to-cover ratios, providing critical insights into investor behavior.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the results of the 3-Year Note Auction as they have a direct impact on bond prices, yields, and subsequently influence currency values like the USD, equities, and overall market sentiment. Strong demand often signals confidence in the economy, which can lead to bullish trends in the stock market, while weak demand may prompt bearish reactions as it reflects concerns about economic stability.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from competitive and non-competitive bids submitted by institutional and individual investors during the auction process. The yields are determined based on the highest accepted bids and the amount of paper sold, providing insights into market expectations regarding future interest rates and monetary policy.
Description
Preliminary results from the auction indicate immediate market sentiment towards U.S. debt instruments, whereas final figures are consolidated after the auction closes, reflecting accurate bid totals and yields. The preliminary data, being timelier, often triggers more immediate trading reactions, while final figures help confirm trends and can lead to further adjustments in market positions over time.
Additional Notes
The 3-Year Note Auction serves as a coincident indicator of market conditions and is often compared with other maturities such as the 10-Year and 30-Year Note Auctions to gauge relative investor confidence. These auctions provide context to broader economic conditions, influencing perceptions around government fiscal policy and the overall economic environment.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected demand at the auction: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected demand at the auction: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. In a dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
3.824%
3.784%
3.784%
3.908%
3.908%
4.3%
4.3%
4.332%
4.332%
4.117%
4.117%
4.152%
4.152%
3.878%
3.878%
3.44%
3.44%
3.81%
3.81%
4.399%
4.399%
4.659%
4.659%
4.605%
4.605%
4.548%
4.548%
4.256%
4.256%
4.169%
4.169%
4.105%
4.105%
4.49%
4.49%
4.701%
4.701%
4.74%
4.74%
4.66%
4.66%
4.398%
4.398%
4.534%
4.534%
4.202%
4.202%
3.695%
3.695%
3.81%
3.81%
4.635%
4.635%
4.073%
4.073%
3.977%
3.977%
4.093%
4.093%
4.605%
4.605%
4.318%
4.318%
3.564%
3.564%
3.202%
3.202%
3.093%
3.093%
2.927%
2.927%
2.809%
2.809%
2.738%
2.738%
1.775%
1.775%
1.592%
1.592%
1.237%
1.237%
1%
1%
0.7%
0.7%
0.635%
0.635%
0.447%
0.447%
0.465%
0.465%
0.426%
0.426%
0.325%
0.325%
0.329%
0.329%
0.376%
0.376%
0.355%
0.355%
0.196%
0.196%
0.234%
0.234%
0.211%
0.211%
0.25%
0.25%
0.193%
0.193%
0.17%
0.17%
0.179%
0.179%
0.19%
0.19%
0.28%
0.28%
0.23%
0.23%
0.348%
0.348%
0.563%
0.563%
1.394%
1.394%
1.567%
1.567%
1.632%
1.632%
1.63%
1.63%
1.413%
1.413%
1.573%
1.573%
1.562%
1.562%
1.857%
1.857%
1.861%
1.861%
2.248%
2.248%
2.301%
2.301%
2.448%
2.448%
2.502%
2.502%
2.559%
2.559%
2.748%
2.748%
2.983%
2.983%
2.989%
2.989%
2.821%
2.821%
2.765%
2.765%
2.685%
2.685%
2.664%
2.664%
2.664%
2.664%
2.45%
2.45%
2.436%
2.436%
2.28%
2.28%
2.08%
2.08%
1.932%
1.932%
1.75%
1.75%
1.657%
1.657%
1.433%
1.433%
1.52%
1.52%
1.573%
1.573%
1.5%
1.5%
1.572%
1.572%
1.525%
1.525%
1.61%
1.63%
-0.085%
1.63%
1.46%
1.423%
0.17%
1.423%
1.4%
1.472%
0.023%
1.472%
1.452%
1.452%
1.034%
1.034%
0.94%
1.045%
0.094%
1.045%
0.947%
0.947%
0.85%
0.85%
0.765%
0.765%
0.93%
0.93%
0.875%
0.875%
0.89%
0.89%
1.19%
1.039%
-0.3%
1.039%
0.77%
0.844%
0.269%
0.844%
1.09%
1.174%
-0.246%
1.174%
1.24%
1.255%
-0.066%
1.255%
1.36%
1.271%
-0.105%
1.271%
0.895%
0.895%
1.056%
1.056%
1.013%
1.013%
0.932%
0.932%
1.125%
1.125%
1%
1%
0.865%