France EUR

France 26-Year OAT Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3.3%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.78%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The 26-Year OAT (Obligation Assimilable du Trésor) auction in France measures the government's ability to finance its long-term borrowing needs through the issuance of bonds. This auction focuses on assessing demand for government debt, the associated yields, and investor confidence, making it a crucial indicator of national fiscal health and market sentiment.
Frequency
The auction of 26-Year OATs is conducted regularly, generally on a quarterly basis, with results typically released on the day of the auction.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the 26-Year OAT auction as it provides insights into government borrowing costs, which can influence market interest rates and overall economic conditions. Strong demand during the auction tends to lead to lower yields, which can boost investor confidence in the French economy, while poor demand can signal fiscal concerns, impacting both currency and equity markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The results of the auction are derived from the bids received from institutional and retail investors, with a focus on the total amount of bids and the yield that the government is willing to accept. Data is collected through a competitive bidding process, where investors indicate how much they are willing to purchase at various yield levels.
Description
In this auction, a high level of participation typically indicates strong investor confidence regarding the nation's economic outlook. The preliminary results of the auction include the total amount raised and the averaged yield accepted, which can later be revised based on market conditions before finalization.
Additional Notes
The 26-Year OAT auction serves as a leading indicator for other long-term bond issues and generally reflects investor sentiment towards France’s fiscal and economic stability. Additionally, it can have implications for assessing trends in long-term interest rates and government financing stability in relation to the European Union and the broader global market.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected demand at the auction signals bullish sentiment for the Euro, bullish for stocks, as it reflects increased investor confidence in the French economy and lower financing costs. Conversely, if demand is lower than anticipated, it can be classified as bearish for the Euro and stocks due to concerns over government fiscal stability and higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Dec 05, 2024
3.3%
3.78%