France EUR

France 11-Year OAT Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3.2%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.49%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The France 11-Year OAT Auction measures the government's ability to borrow funds through the issuance of its long-term bonds, specifically the obligations assimilables du Trésor (OAT) with an 11-year maturity. It primarily focuses on the yield, demand, and overall investor interest in French sovereign debt, thus assessing factors such as market confidence, inflation expectations, and the fiscal health of the French economy.
Frequency
This auction occurs regularly, typically every month, and provides a final figure upon release, reflecting the outcomes of that period's bidding.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders analyze this auction because the results can influence interest rates across various financial markets, impacting the euro (EUR), government bond yields, and equity markets. Higher yields or weaker demand may indicate increased concerns about credit risk or inflation, which in turn can cause bearish sentiment in equities and strengthen the Euro if perceived as a sign of stability.
What Is It Derived From?
The 11-Year OAT Auction results are derived from the bids submitted by institutional and retail investors, evaluated by the French Treasury. The yield is determined based on the interest rate investors are willing to accept, encapsulating market conditions and investor appetite for French debt at that time.
Description
The auction produces preliminary results shortly after the bidding, with final numbers released later after scrutiny of the bidding process and further assessment. The information gleaned from these results helps traders gauge financial stability and risk in the Eurozone, particularly in relation to other sovereign bonds.
Additional Notes
This auction can serve as a leading indicator of investor sentiment and confidence in the French economy and broader Eurozone fiscal health. The results of the OAT auction are often compared with similar auctions from other Eurozone countries, offering insights into relative economic strength and investor preferences across different national debts.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If the auction results in higher-than-expected yields: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. If the auction shows weaker demand than anticipated: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. A hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the Euro but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Feb 06, 2025
3.2%
3.49%