China CNY

China GDP Growth Rate QoQ

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2%

CNY

Actual:

1.2%

Forecast: 1.4%

Previous/Revision:

1.6%

Period: Q1

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 0.4%

Period: Q2

What Does It Measure?

The GDP Growth Rate measures the change in the economic output of China over a specified quarter, indicating the pace of economic growth or contraction. Its primary focus is on the overall productivity of goods and services produced within the country, encompassing key areas such as consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports.

Frequency

This report is released quarterly, typically providing both preliminary and final estimates, with the preliminary figures usually published about one month after the quarter ends.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the GDP Growth Rate as it serves as a crucial indicator of economic health, influencing market sentiment and potential monetary policy decisions. Stronger-than-expected growth is typically bullish for the Chinese yuan and equities, while weaker data may have a bearish impact on these markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The GDP Growth Rate is calculated using data from various sectors of the economy, including industrial production, retail sales, and investment figures, with contributions weighted according to their importance in the overall economy. It is derived from official statistics collected by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, often reflecting feedback from a wide range of economic activities.

Description

Preliminary reports provide an early glimpse into economic performance based on initial data, while final reports offer a more comprehensive and accurate assessment once all data are compiled. The quarterly nature of the GDP Growth Rate allows for understanding medium-term trends in China's economy, enabling traders to identify periods of economic expansion or contraction.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic indicator, the GDP Growth Rate forecasts future economic activity and can signal potential changes in monetary policy. It is closely watched in conjunction with other indicators such as industrial production or retail sales, which also reflect economic conditions in China and contribute to analyses of regional or global economic trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Actual value higher than expected: Bullish for the yuan, Bullish for Stocks. Actual value lower than expected: Bearish for the yuan, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 16, 2025	1.2%	1.4%	1.6%	-0.2%
Jan 17, 2025	1.6%	1.6%	1.3%
Oct 18, 2024	0.9%	1%	0.7%	-0.1%
Jul 15, 2024	0.7%	1.1%	1.5%	-0.4%
Apr 16, 2024	1.6%	0.9%	1.2%	0.7%
Jan 17, 2024	1%	1%	1.5%
Oct 18, 2023	1.3%	1%	0.5%	0.3%
Jul 17, 2023	0.8%	0.5%	2.2%	0.3%
Apr 18, 2023	2.2%	2.2%	0.6%
Jan 17, 2023	0%	-0.8%	3.9%	0.8%
Oct 24, 2022	3.9%	3.5%	-2.7%	0.4%
Jul 15, 2022	-2.6%	-1.5%	1.4%	-1.1%
Apr 18, 2022	1.3%	0.6%	1.5%	0.7%
Jan 17, 2022	1.6%	1.1%	0.7%	0.5%
Oct 18, 2021	0.2%	0.5%	1.2%	-0.3%
Jul 15, 2021	1.3%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Apr 16, 2021	0.6%	1.5%	3.2%	-0.9%
Jan 18, 2021	2.6%	3.2%	3%	-0.6%
Oct 19, 2020	2.7%	3.2%	11.7%	-0.5%
Jul 16, 2020	11.5%	9.6%	-10%	1.9%
Apr 17, 2020	-9.8%	-9.9%	1.5%	0.1%
Jan 17, 2020	1.5%	1.5%	1.4%
Oct 18, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.6%
Jul 15, 2019	1.6%	1.5%	1.4%	0.1%
Apr 17, 2019	1.4%	1.4%	1.5%
Jan 21, 2019	1.5%	1.5%	1.6%
Oct 19, 2018	1.6%	1.6%	1.8%
Jul 16, 2018	1.8%	1.6%	1.4%	0.2%
Apr 17, 2018	1.4%	1.5%	1.6%	-0.1%
Jan 18, 2018	1.6%	1.6%	1.8%
Oct 19, 2017	1.7%	1.7%	1.8%
Jul 17, 2017	1.7%	1.7%	1.3%
Apr 17, 2017	1.3%	1.6%	1.7%	-0.3%
Jan 20, 2017	1.7%	1.7%	1.8%
Oct 19, 2016	1.8%	1.8%	1.9%
Jul 15, 2016	1.8%	1.6%	1.2%	0.2%
Jan 19, 2016	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%	-0.1%
Oct 19, 2015	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.1%
Jul 15, 2015	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%