United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Claimant Count Change

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-17.1K

GBP

Actual:

5.2K

Forecast: 22.3K

Previous/Revision:

-16.9K

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The Claimant Count Change in the United Kingdom measures the change in the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits, providing a critical insight into the state of employment within the economy. It primarily assesses labor market conditions and can indicate trends in unemployment, with a figure above zero suggesting worsening conditions and below zero indicating improvements in employment.

Frequency

The Claimant Count Change is released monthly, typically on the second Wednesday of the following month, and comprises final figures rather than preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this report as it has significant implications for financial markets, particularly in terms of currency and equity performance. An increase in the claimant count typically signals weakness in the job market, which may lead to a bearish sentiment for the British Pound (GBP) and equities, while a decrease suggests economic strength, potentially bullish for these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Claimant Count Change is calculated based on data collected from individuals registering for unemployment benefits, including both Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimants. This data is derived from administrative records maintained by the Department for Work and Pensions, ensuring that the figures reflect actual claims and changes in the labor market.

Description

The Claimant Count Change is characterized as a coincident indicator of the economy, reflecting the current state of employment by providing an immediate view of jobless claims. Unlike other employment metrics, which may lag economic shifts, this indicator offers timely insights into labor market dynamics and potential economic trends.

Additional Notes

This indicator is often compared to the unemployment rate and other employment figures, serving as a supplementary measure of job market health. It acts as a coincident economic measure, directly illustrating the current state of employment trends in relation to other regions or global economic conditions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 13, 2025	5.2K	22.3K	-16.9K	-17.1K
Apr 15, 2025	18.7K	30.3K	16.5K	-11.6K
Mar 20, 2025	44.2K	7.9K	2.8K	36.3K
Feb 18, 2025	22K	10K	-15.1K	12K
Jan 21, 2025	0.7K	10.3K	-25.1K	-9.6K
Dec 17, 2024	0.3K	28.2K	-10.9K	-27.9K
Nov 12, 2024	26.7K	30.5K	10.1K	-3.8K
Oct 15, 2024	27.9K	20.2K	0.3K	7.7K
Sep 10, 2024	23.7K	95.5K	102.3K	-71.8K
Aug 13, 2024	135K	14.5K	36.2K	120.5K
Jul 18, 2024	32.3K	23.4K	51.9K	8.9K
Jun 11, 2024	50.4K	10.2K	8.4K	40.2K
May 14, 2024	8.9K	13.9K	-2.4K	-5K
Apr 16, 2024	10.9K	17.2K	4.1K	-6.3K
Mar 12, 2024	16.8K	20.3K	3.1K	-3.5K
Feb 13, 2024	14.1K	6K	5.5K	8.1K
Jan 16, 2024	11.7K	3K	0.6K	8.7K
Dec 12, 2023	16K	15K	8.9K	1K
Nov 14, 2023	17.8K	25K	9K	-7.2K
Oct 24, 2023	20.4K	2.3K	-9K	18.1K
Sep 12, 2023	0.9K	17K	7.4K	-16.1K
Aug 15, 2023	29K	-7.3K	16.2K	36.3K
Jul 11, 2023	25.7K	-22K	-22.5K	47.7K
Jun 13, 2023	-13.6K	22K	23.4K	-35.6K
May 16, 2023	46.7K	-15K	26.5K	61.7K
Apr 18, 2023	28.2K	-9.5K	-18.8K	37.7K
Mar 14, 2023	-11.2K	-27K	-30.3K	15.8K
Feb 14, 2023	-12.9K	25K	-3.2K	-37.9K
Jan 17, 2023	19.7K	16K	16.1K	3.7K
Dec 13, 2022	30.5K	3.5K	-6.4K	27K
Nov 15, 2022	3.3K	27K	3.9K	-23.7K
Oct 11, 2022	25.5K	10K	6.3K	15.5K
Sep 13, 2022	6.3K	-4K	-10.5K	10.3K
Aug 16, 2022	-10.5K	-10K	-26.8K	-0.5K
Jul 19, 2022	-20.1K	-25K	-34.7K	4.9K
Jun 14, 2022	-19.7K	-49.4K	-65.5K	29.7K
May 17, 2022	-56.9K	-42.5K	-81.6K	-14.4K
Apr 12, 2022	-46.9K	-31K	-58K	-15.9K
Mar 15, 2022	-48.1K	-25K	-67.3K	-23.1K
Feb 15, 2022	-31.9K	-28K	-43.3K	-3.9K
Jan 18, 2022	-43.3K	-36K	-95.1K	-7.3K
Dec 14, 2021	-49.8K	-20K	-14.9K	-29.8K
Nov 16, 2021	-14.9K	-30K	-51.1K	15.1K
Oct 12, 2021	-51.1K	-46K	-58.6K	-5.1K
Sep 14, 2021	-58.6K	-26K	-7.8K	-32.6K
Aug 17, 2021	-7.8K	-180K	-114.8K	172.2K
Jul 15, 2021	-114.8K	-120K	-92.6K	5.2K
Jun 15, 2021	-92.6K	-62K	-55.8K	-30.6K
May 18, 2021	-15.1K	25K	-19.4K	-40.1K
Apr 20, 2021	10.1K	150K	86.6K	-139.9K
Mar 23, 2021	86.6K	-17K	-20.8K	103.6K
Feb 23, 2021	-20K	25K	-20.4K	-45K
Jan 26, 2021	7K	35K	38.1K	-28K
Dec 15, 2020	64.3K	30K	-29.8K	34.3K
Nov 10, 2020	-29.8K	50K	-40.2K	-79.8K
Oct 13, 2020	28K	78.8K	39.5K	-50.8K
Sep 15, 2020	73.7K	100K	69.9K	-26.3K
Aug 11, 2020	94.4K	10K	-28.1K	84.4K
Jul 16, 2020	-28.1K	250K	566.4K	-278.1K
Jun 16, 2020	528.9K	400K	1032.7K	128.9K
May 19, 2020	856.5K	676.5K	12.1K	180K
Apr 21, 2020	12.2K	175K	5.9K	-162.8K
Mar 17, 2020	17.3K	21.4K	-0.2K	-4.1K
Feb 18, 2020	5.5K	22.6K	2.6K	-17.1K
Jan 21, 2020	14.9K	22.6K	14.9K	-7.7K
Dec 17, 2019	28.8K	24.5K	26.4K	4.3K
Nov 12, 2019	33K	21.3K	13.5K	11.7K
Oct 15, 2019	21.1K	26.5K	16.3K	-5.4K
Sep 10, 2019	28.2K	30K	19.8K	-1.8K
Aug 13, 2019	28K	32K	31.4K	-4K
Jul 16, 2019	38K	22.8K	24.5K	15.2K
Jun 11, 2019	23.2K	22.9K	19.1K	0.3K
May 14, 2019	24.7K	24.2K	22.6K	0.5K
Apr 16, 2019	28.3K	20K	26.7K	8.3K
Mar 19, 2019	27K	2.7K	15.7K	24.3K
Feb 19, 2019	14.2K	2.7K	20.2K	11.5K
Jan 22, 2019	20.8K	20K	24.8K	0.8K
Dec 11, 2018	21.9K	13.2K	23.2K	8.7K
Nov 13, 2018	20.2k	4.3K	23.2K
Oct 16, 2018	18.5K	7.5K	14.2K	11K
Sep 11, 2018	8.7K	10K	10.2K	-1.3K
Aug 14, 2018	6.2K	3.8K	9K	2.4K
Jul 17, 2018	7.8K	-2.1K	-3K	9.9K
Jun 12, 2018	-7.7K	11.3K	28.2K	-19K
May 15, 2018	31.2K	7.8K	15.7K	23.4K
Apr 17, 2018	11.6K	5K	15.1K	6.6K
Mar 21, 2018	9.2K	-5K	-1.6K	14.2K
Feb 21, 2018	-7.2K	4.1K	6.2K	-11.3K
Jan 24, 2018	8.6K	5.4K	12.2K	3.2K
Dec 13, 2017	5.9K	3.2K	6.5K	2.7K
Nov 15, 2017	1.1K	2.3K	2.6K	-1.2K
Oct 18, 2017	1.7K	1K	-0.2K	0.7K
Sep 13, 2017	-2.8K	0.6K	-2.9K	-3.4K
Aug 16, 2017	-4.2K	3.7K	3.5K	-7.9K
Jul 12, 2017	5.9K	10K	7.7K	-4.1K
Jun 14, 2017	7.3K	20.3K	22K	-13K
May 17, 2017	19.4K	7.5K	33.5K	11.9K
Apr 12, 2017	25.5K	-3K	-6.1K	28.5K
Mar 15, 2017	-11.3K		-41.4K
Feb 15, 2017	-42.4K	0.8K	-20.5K	-43.2K
Jan 18, 2017	-10.1K	5K	1.3K	-15.1K
Dec 14, 2016	2.4K	5K	13.3K	-2.6K
Nov 16, 2016	9.8K	2K	5.6K	7.8K
Oct 19, 2016	0.7K	3K	7.1K	-2.3K
Sep 14, 2016	2.4K	1.8K	-3.6K	0.6K
Aug 17, 2016	-8.6K	10K	0.9K	-18.6K
Jul 20, 2016	0.4K	3.5K	12.2K	-3.1K
Jun 15, 2016	-0.4K	-0.1K	6.4K	-0.3K
May 18, 2016	-2.4K	4.3K	14.7K	-6.7K
Apr 20, 2016	6.7K	-11.3K	-9.3K	18K
Mar 16, 2016	-18K	-9.1K	-28.4K	-8.9K
Feb 17, 2016	-14.8K	-3K	-15.2K	-11.8K
Jan 20, 2016	-4.3K	2.5K	-2.2K	-6.8K
Dec 16, 2015	3.9K	1.5K	0.2K	2.4K
Nov 11, 2015	3.3K	1.5K	0.5K	1.8K
Oct 14, 2015	4.6K	-2.1K	1.2K	6.7K
Sep 16, 2015	1.2K	-5K	-6.8K	6.2K
Aug 12, 2015	-4.9K	1.5K	0.2K	-6.4K
Jul 15, 2015	7K	-8.8K	-1.1K	15.8K
Jun 17, 2015	-6.5K	-12.3K	-7.8K	5.8K
May 13, 2015	-12.6K	-20K	-16.7K	7.4K