United States USD

United States Goods Trade Balance Adv

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

$10.15B

USD

Actual:

$-85.5B

Forecast: $-95.65B

Previous/Revision:

$-102.8B

Period: Aug

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Nov

What Does It Measure?

The United States Goods Trade Balance Advance measures the difference between the value of goods exported and imported during a specific time period, thus providing insights into the country's trade dynamics. It primarily focuses on trade flows of physical goods, assessing key areas such as trade deficits or surpluses, which can influence economic growth and currency valuation.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis, typically published around the end of the month following the reporting period, reflecting preliminary estimates that are subject to later revision.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Goods Trade Balance as it directly impacts foreign exchange rates and stock market performance; a larger-than-expected trade deficit may lead to currency depreciation while a surplus can strengthen the currency. Moreover, these figures are crucial for economic forecasts and help investors gauge the strength of a nation’s economy, influencing their trading decisions.

What Is It Derived From?

The Goods Trade Balance is calculated using data collected from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which records imports and exports of goods. The data involves extensive reporting by businesses engaged in international trade, encompassing a wide range of sectors.

Description

Preliminary reports provide early estimates based on incomplete data, while final reports offer a more definitive figure after thorough data verification and analysis. In most cases, the Goods Trade Balance is assessed on a month-over-month (MoM) basis to highlight shifts from the previous month, although year-over-year (YoY) comparisons can also provide valuable context for longer-term trends.

Additional Notes

The Goods Trade Balance is considered a coincident indicator, closely reflecting current economic conditions and serving as a significant gauge of economic health. Its trends can indicate potential shifts in consumer demand and manufacturing output, thus informing broader economic assessments and comparisons to other indicators such as the services trade balance.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. A dovish tone is signaling lower interest rates or economic support, which is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Nov 26, 2025		$-89.0B
Oct 29, 2025		$-90B	$-85.5B
Sep 25, 2025	$-85.5B	$-95.65B	$-102.8B	$10.15B
Aug 29, 2025	$-103.6B	$-89.5B	$-84.85B	$-14.1B
Jul 29, 2025	$-85.99B	$-98.4B	$-96.42B	$12.41B
Jun 26, 2025	$-96.59B	$-88.5B	$-86.97B	$-8.09B
May 30, 2025	$-87.62B	$-141.5B	$-162.25B	$53.88B
Apr 29, 2025	$-161.99B	$-146B	$-147.85B	$-15.99B
Mar 27, 2025	$-147.91B	$-134.5B	$-155.57B	$-13.41B
Feb 28, 2025	$-153.26B	$-114.7B	$-122.01B	$-38.56B
Jan 29, 2025	$-122.11B	$-105.4B	$-103.5B	$-16.71B
Dec 27, 2024	$-102.86B	$-100.7B	$-98.26B	$-2.16B
Nov 27, 2024	$-99.08B	$-99.9B	$-108.69B	$0.82B
Oct 29, 2024	$-108.23B	$-96.1B	$-94.22B	$-12.13B
Sep 27, 2024	$-94.26B	$-99.4B	$-102.84B	$5.14B
Aug 29, 2024	$-102.66B	$-97.1B	$-96.56B	$-5.56B
Jul 24, 2024	$-96.8B	$-98B	$-99.4B	$1.2B
Jun 27, 2024	$-100.62B	$-96B	$-97.95B	$-4.62B
May 30, 2024	$-99.41B	$-91.8B	$-92.29B	$-7.61B
Apr 25, 2024	$-91.83B	$-91.2B	$-91.84B	$-0.63B
Mar 29, 2024	$-91.84B	$-88B	$-90.51B	$-3.84B
Feb 28, 2024	$-90.2B	$-87.1B	$-87.89B	$-3.1B
Jan 25, 2024	$-88.46B	$-88B	$-89.33B	$-0.46B
Dec 28, 2023	$-90.27B	$-90B	$-89.56B	$-0.27B
Nov 29, 2023	$-89.84B	$-92B	$-86.84B	$2.16B
Oct 26, 2023	$-85.78B	$-93B	$-84.64B	$7.22B
Sep 29, 2023	$-84.27B	$-95B	$-90.92B	$10.73B
Aug 30, 2023	$-91.18B	$-94B	$-88.83B	$2.82B
Jul 27, 2023	$-87.84B	$-92B	$-91.86B	$4.16B
Jun 28, 2023	$-91.13B	$-91B	$-97.1B	$-0.13B
May 26, 2023	$-96.8B	$-85.7B	$-84.6B	$-11.1B
Apr 26, 2023	$-84.6B	$-89B	$-91.99B	$4.4B
Mar 28, 2023	$-91.63B	$-91B	$-91.09B	$-0.63B
Feb 28, 2023	$-91.5B	$-87B	$-89.67B	$-4.5B
Jan 26, 2023	$-90.3B	$-82.5B	$-82.93B	$-7.8B
Dec 27, 2022	$-83.35B	$-97B	$-98.8B	$13.65B
Nov 30, 2022	$-99B	$-94B	$-91.91B	$-5B
Oct 26, 2022	$-92.22B	$-86B	$-87.28B	$-6.22B
Sep 28, 2022	$-87.3B	$-85B	$-90.19B	$-2.3B
Aug 26, 2022	$-89.06B	$-97B	$-98.59B	$7.94B
Jul 27, 2022	$-98.18B	$-104B	$-104.04B	$5.82B
Jun 28, 2022	$-104.31B	$-122B	$-106.7B	$17.69B
May 27, 2022	$-105.94B	$-119B	$-125.94B	$13.06B
Apr 27, 2022	$-125.32B	$-105B	$-106.35B	$-20.32B
Mar 28, 2022	$-106.59B	$-106.2B	$-107.57B	$-0.39B
Feb 28, 2022	$-107.63B	$-99B	$-100.47B	$-8.63B
Jan 26, 2022	$-101B	$-94B	$-98B	$-7B
Dec 29, 2021	$-97.78B	$-86B	$-83.2B	$-11.78B
Nov 24, 2021	$-82.89B	$-96B	$-97.03B	$13.11B
Oct 27, 2021	$-96.25B	$-87B	$-88.16B	$-9.25B
Sep 28, 2021	$-87.6B	$-85B	$-86.8B	$-2.6B
Aug 27, 2021	$-86.38B	$-89B	$-92.05B	$2.62B
Jul 28, 2021	$-91.21B	$-87B	$-88.16B	$-4.21B
Jun 24, 2021	$-88.11B	$-84B	$-85.73B	$-4.11B
May 28, 2021	$-85.23B	$-91B	$-91.98B	$5.77B
Apr 28, 2021	$-90.59B	$-85B	$-87.07B	$-5.59B
Mar 26, 2021	$-86.72B	$-83B	$-84.58B	$-3.72B
Feb 26, 2021	$-83.74B	$-83B	$-83.19B	$-0.74B
Jan 28, 2021	$-82.47B	$-86B	$-85.49B	$3.53B
Dec 30, 2020	$-84.82B	$-83B	$-80.42B	$-1.82B
Nov 25, 2020	$-80.29B	$-82B	$-79.36B	$1.71B
Oct 28, 2020	$-79.37B	$-80B	$-83.11B	$0.63B
Sep 29, 2020	$-82.94B	$-81B	$-80.11B	$-1.94B
Aug 28, 2020	$-79.32B	$-73B	$-70.99B	$-6.32B
Jul 29, 2020	$-70.64B	$-72B	$-75.3B	$1.36B
Jun 25, 2020	$-74.34B	$-63B	$-70.73B	$-11.34B
May 29, 2020	$-69.68B	$-61.2B	$-64.98B	$-8.48B
Apr 28, 2020	$-64.22B	$-63.8B	$-59.89B	$-0.42B
Mar 26, 2020	$-59.89B	$-68.9B	$-65.9B	$9.01B
Feb 28, 2020	$-65.5B	$-72.9B	$-68.67B	$7.4B
Jan 29, 2020	$-68.33B	$-68.75B	$-62.99B	$0.42B
Dec 30, 2019	$-63.19B	$-68.75B	$-66.8B	$5.56B
Nov 26, 2019	$-66.53B	$-71.3B	$-70.55B	$4.77B
Oct 28, 2019	$-70.39B	$-76.2B	$-73.06B	$5.81B
Sep 26, 2019	$-72.83B	$-77.327B	$-72.46B	$4.497B
Aug 29, 2019	$-72.34B	$-74B	$-74.16B	$1.66B
Jul 25, 2019	$-74.17B	$-72.4B	$-75.05B	$-1.77B
Jun 26, 2019	$-74.55B	$-71.8B	$-70.92B	$-2.75B
May 30, 2019	$-72.12B	$-72B	$-71.33B	$-0.12B
May 03, 2019	$-71.45B	$-73B	$-70.9B	$1.55B
Feb 27, 2019	$-79.49B		$-70.5B
Nov 28, 2018	$-77.25B	$-76.7B	$-76.25B	$-0.55B
Oct 25, 2018	$-76.04B	$-74.9B	$-75.46B	$-1.14B
Sep 27, 2018	$-75.8B	$-70.6B	$-72.2B	$-5.2B
Aug 28, 2018	$-72.2B	$-68.6B	$-67.92B	$-3.6B
Jul 26, 2018	$-68.3B	$-67B	$-64.85B	$-1.3B
Jun 27, 2018	$-64.85B		$-67.34B
May 30, 2018	$-68.19B	$-71.2B	$-68.59B	$3.01B
Apr 26, 2018	$-68.04B	$-74.8B	$-75.88B	$6.76B
Mar 28, 2018	$-75.35B	$-74.1B	$-75.26B	$-1.25B
Feb 27, 2018	$-74.4B	$-72.3B	$-71.58B	$-2.1B
Jan 26, 2018	$-71.6B	$-68.6B	$-70B	$-3B
Dec 28, 2017	$-69.68B	$-67.7B	$-68.1B	$-1.98B
Nov 28, 2017	$-68.3B	$-65B	$-64.14B	$-3.3B
Oct 26, 2017	$-64.14B	$-63.8B	$-63.3B	$-0.34B
Sep 28, 2017	$-62.94B	$-65B	$-65.1B	$2.06B
Aug 28, 2017	$-65.1B	$-64.5B	$-63.86B	$-0.6B
Jul 27, 2017	$-63.86B	$-65B	$-65.9B	$1.14B
Jun 28, 2017	$-65.9B	$-66.2B	$-67B	$0.3B
May 25, 2017	$-67.55B	$-64.6B	$-65.05B	$-2.95B
Apr 27, 2017	$-64.8B	$-65.5B	$-64.8B	$0.7B
Mar 28, 2017	$-64.8B	$-66.6B	$-68.84B	$1.8B
Feb 28, 2017	$-69.2B	$-66B	$-64.4B	$-3.2B
Jan 26, 2017	$-65B	$-64.5B	$-65.3B	$-0.5B
Dec 29, 2016	$-65.3B	$-61.5B	$-61.99B	$-3.8B
Nov 25, 2016	$-61.99B	$-59.2B	$-56.08B	$-2.79B