United States USD

United States Columbus Day

Impact:
Medium

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
Columbus Day is a federal holiday in the United States that commemorates Christopher Columbus's arrival in the Americas, but it does not measure any specific quantitative economic indicator directly. However, the holiday is significant in assessing consumer behavior, retail activity, and employment patterns, particularly reflecting spending habits as it often falls within the back-to-school or holiday shopping season.
Frequency
Columbus Day occurs annually on the second Monday of October.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor Columbus Day as it can influence consumer spending trends and economic activity levels, which are critical for forecasting retail sales and GDP growth. Disruptions due to the holiday can impact key asset prices, especially in retail stocks and consumer goods sectors, as well as the currency market depending on projected consumer robustness.
What Is It Derived From?
The implications of Columbus Day for the economy derive from various data sources, including consumer spending surveys, retail sales reports, and employment statistics, as well as reports from businesses regarding holiday sales. The day’s economic relevance is calculated through observed retail sales and any shifts in consumer activity compared to typical spending patterns.
Description
Columbus Day serves as a gauge for consumer confidence and spending behavior during a period when retailers often offer promotions to entice shoppers. The day can lead to increased retail sales and may act as a seasonal marker indicating the transition into more significant spending seasons, specifically the holiday retail season.
Additional Notes
As a holiday, Columbus Day is considered a lagging economic measure because its effects on consumer behavior and spending patterns become more apparent in subsequent retail sales data. The holiday's timing and the resultant economic activity are also compared with other holidays and seasonal indicators to evaluate trends in consumer confidence and economic health.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
This section is not applicable for Columbus Day as it does not provide numerical expectations or direct monetary policy influence.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise