United States USD

United States Core PCE Price Index YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
2.5%
Forecast: 2.5%
Previous/Revision:
2.7%
Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:
Period: May
What Does It Measure?
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the annual change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services, excluding food and energy prices. It primarily focuses on assessing inflation trends and consumer spending behavior, serving as a key metric for the Federal Reserve to gauge monetary policy.
Frequency
The Core PCE Price Index is released monthly and typically comes out on the last business day of the month following the reference month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the Core PCE Price Index closely because its results can significantly influence market predictions regarding future interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve. A higher-than-expected index suggests rising inflation, which can lead to an increase in interest rates, affecting currencies like the USD, equity prices, and bond yields.
What Is It Derived From?
The index is derived from a broad-based survey of consumer expenditures, which gathers data on prices from various retail establishments and service providers. The calculation employs a chained index method, using a weighted average of changes in price categories, which allows it to reflect consumer behavior accurately.
Description
The Core PCE Price Index typically provides a preliminary estimate followed by a final report; the preliminary figures are based on early available data and may be adjusted in subsequent releases for accuracy. This monthly inflation index is reported year-over-year (YoY) to eliminate seasonality effects and provide insights into longer-term inflationary trends, making it a critical indicator for policymakers and economic analysts.
Additional Notes
The Core PCE Price Index serves as a leading indicator of inflationary pressures in the broader economy and is closely watched in conjunction with other economic metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Its identification as a coincident economic measure places it alongside indicators that reflect current economic performance.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates due to inflation concerns is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
3%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
0.1%
2.6%
2.6%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.9%
2.8%
-0.1%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.7%
0.1%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.7%
2.6%
-0.1%
2.6%
2.5%
2.6%
0.1%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.6%
2.8%
0.2%
2.8%
2.8%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
3%
3.2%
-0.1%
3.2%
3.3%
3.4%
-0.1%
3.5%
3.5%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.2%
4.6%
-0.1%
4.6%
4.7%
4.7%
-0.1%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
0.1%
4.6%
4.5%
4.7%
0.1%
4.6%
4.7%
4.7%
-0.1%
4.7%
4.3%
4.6%
0.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
5%
5%
5%
5.2%
5.1%
5.2%
4.9%
-0.1%
4.9%
4.7%
4.7%
0.2%
4.6%
4.7%
4.8%
-0.1%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
0.1%
4.7%
4.8%
4.9%
-0.1%
4.9%
4.9%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
-0.1%
5.4%
5.5%
5.2%
-0.1%
5.2%
5.1%
4.9%
0.1%
4.9%
4.8%
4.7%
0.1%
4.7%
4.5%
4.2%
0.2%
4.1%
4.1%
3.7%
3.6%
3.7%
3.6%
-0.1%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.5%
3.7%
3.4%
-0.2%
3.4%
3.4%
3.1%
3.1%
2.9%
1.9%
0.2%
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
-0.1%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
0.1%
1.5%
1.3%
1.4%
0.2%
1.4%
1.5%
1.4%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.4%
1.6%
1.5%
1.7%
1.4%
-0.2%
1.6%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
0.1%
0.9%
1%
1%
-0.1%
1%
0.9%
1%
0.1%
1%
1.1%
1.7%
-0.1%
1.7%
1.6%
1.8%
0.1%
1.6%
1.7%
1.5%
-0.1%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
-0.1%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.5%
-0.1%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
-0.1%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
-0.1%
1.8%
1.9%
2%
-0.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
-0.1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1.9%
1.9%
2%
1.9%
-0.1%
2%
1.9%
1.8%
0.1%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
1.5%
0.2%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.8%
0.1%
1.7%
1.8%
1.7%
-0.1%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.7%
0.1%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
0.1%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%