United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom HMRC Payrolls Change

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-1K

Actual:

-41K

Forecast: -40K

Previous/Revision:

-25K

Period: Jun

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jul

What Does It Measure?

The HMRC Payrolls Change measures the monthly change in the number of employees on payrolls in the United Kingdom, providing a critical indicator of employment trends and the overall health of the labor market. It focuses on the number of jobs subject to PAYE (Pay As You Earn) and assesses components such as job growth, sector-specific employment shifts, and labor force participation.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, typically on the first working day of the following month, and represents a preliminary estimate that may later be revised.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the HMRC Payrolls Change closely as it significantly impacts expectations for economic growth and influences monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England. A higher-than-expected payrolls change is generally bullish for the British Pound and equities, as it indicates a strengthening economy, while weaker figures can lead to bearish sentiment in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The HMRC Payrolls Change is derived from administrative data collected from the HM Revenue and Customs department, which processes PAYE tax information for employees in the UK. The data includes a comprehensive snapshot of payroll-based employment and utilizes statistical methodologies to ensure accuracy and representativeness across sectors and regions.

Description

This indicator is reported in absolute terms as the number of additional or lost jobs compared to the previous month, providing insights into short-term labor market trends. It is considered a coincident indicator, reflecting real-time shifts in the employment landscape and serving as a barometer for consumer spending potential.

Additional Notes

The HMRC Payrolls Change complements other employment measures, such as the unemployment rate and earnings growth, forming a broader picture of labor market conditions. It is generally regarded as a coincident economic measure, which aligns with overall economic activity trends, allowing analysts to gauge the current state of the UK economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jul 17, 2025	-41K	-40K	-25K	-1K
Jun 10, 2025	-109K	-25K	-55K	-84K
May 13, 2025	-33K	-90K	-47K	57K
Apr 15, 2025	-78K	-35K	-8K	-43K
Mar 20, 2025	21K	95K	9K	-74K
Feb 18, 2025	21K	-55K	-14K	76K
Jan 21, 2025	-47K	-20K	-32K	-27K
Dec 17, 2024	-35K	-10K	24K	-25K
Nov 12, 2024	-5K	12K	-9K	-17K
Oct 15, 2024	-15K	17K	-35K	-32K
Sep 10, 2024	-59K	20K	-6K	-79K
Aug 13, 2024	24K	15K	14K	9K
Jul 18, 2024	16K	5K	54K	11K
Jun 11, 2024	-3.1K	-7K	-36.3K	3.9K
May 14, 2024	-85K	-25K	-5K	-60K
Apr 16, 2024	-67K	27K	-18K	-94K
Mar 12, 2024	20K	34K	15K	-14K
Feb 13, 2024	48K	-12K	31K	60K
Jan 16, 2024	-24K	30K	9K	-54K
Dec 12, 2023	-12K	25K	39K	-37K
Nov 14, 2023	33K	-18K	32K	51K
Oct 17, 2023	-11K	-11K	-8K
Sep 12, 2023	-1K	30K	-4K	-31K
Aug 15, 2023	97K	-12K	47K	109K
Jul 11, 2023	-9K		20K
Jun 13, 2023	23K	-90K	7K	113K
May 16, 2023	-136K	15K	42K	-151K
Apr 18, 2023	31K	65K	39K	-34K
Mar 14, 2023	98K	75K	42K	23K
Feb 14, 2023	102K	53K	47K	49K
Jan 17, 2023	28K	129K	70K	-101K
Dec 13, 2022	107K	45K	79K	62K