United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence

Impact:
Medium
Source: GfK Group

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
1
| GBP
Actual:
-17
Forecast: -18
Previous/Revision:
-18
Period: Dec

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Nov
What Does It Measure?
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index in the United Kingdom measures the level of consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions, assessing factors such as personal finances, general economic outlook, and readiness to make major purchases. It focuses primarily on consumer confidence, which is a critical indicator of overall economic health and future consumer spending, and is a national indicator.
Frequency
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index is released monthly, typically published on the last Friday of each month, reflecting preliminary estimates.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay attention to the GfK Consumer Confidence Index as it signals consumers' willingness to spend, impacting key assets like the British Pound (GBP) and equities; a higher than expected index may bolster market optimism, whereas a lower reading could induce caution in the markets. Furthermore, this index serves as a vital tool for forecasting economic trends, making it an essential reference for traders and policymakers alike.
What Is It Derived From?
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index is derived from a survey conducted among a representative sample of British consumers, typically involving around 2,000 respondents. It utilizes a diffusion index methodology that captures sentiment on various economic components, allowing for weighted results that reflect the broader consumer perspective.
Description
The GfK Consumer Confidence Index consists of several key components that gauge consumers' expectations regarding their financial situations over the next year, perceptions of the general economic situation, and attitudes towards making significant purchases. By effectively capturing consumer sentiment, it plays a pivotal role in gauging potential shifts in consumer behavior and overall economic activity.
Additional Notes
This index is considered a leading economic indicator, providing insights into future consumer spending trends which can influence GDP growth. The GfK index often correlates with retail sales figures and broader economic conditions, making it a relevant metric for both domestic and international economic assessments.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Dec 13, 2024
-17
 -18
-18
 1
Nov 22, 2024
-18
 -22
-21
4
Dec 15, 2023
-22
 -22
-24
Nov 24, 2023
-24
 -28
-30
 4
Dec 16, 2022
-42
 -43
-44
 1
Nov 18, 2022
-44
 -51
-47
7
Dec 17, 2021
-15
 -16
-14
 1
Nov 19, 2021
-14
 -18
-17
4
Dec 18, 2020
-26
 -31
-33
5
Nov 20, 2020
-33
 -34
-31
 1
Dec 20, 2019
-11
 -14
-14
3
Nov 29, 2019
-14
 -14
-14
Dec 21, 2018
-14
 -14
-13
Nov 29, 2018
-13
 -11
-10
-2
Dec 21, 2017
-13
 -12
-12
-1
Nov 29, 2017
-12
 -11
-10
-1
Dec 22, 2016
-7
 -8
-8
 1
Nov 30, 2016
-8
 -4
-3
-4
Dec 22, 2015
2
 1
1
1
Nov 27, 2015
1
 2
2
 -1