United States USD

United States U-6 Unemployment Rate

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2%

Actual:

7.8%

Forecast: 8%

Previous/Revision:

7.9%

Period: Apr

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 7.8%

Period: May

What Does It Measure?

The United States U-6 Unemployment Rate is a broader measure of unemployment that captures not only those who are unemployed but also those who are underemployed and marginally attached to the labor force. Specifically, it assesses the status of people who are unemployed, those working part-time for economic reasons, and those who want to work but have not actively sought employment in the recent past, providing a more comprehensive view of labor market conditions.

Frequency

The U-6 Unemployment Rate is released monthly, typically in the first week of the month, as part of the broader Employment Situation report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the U-6 Unemployment Rate as it reflects the overall health of the labor market, influencing monetary policy, consumer spending, and economic growth. Changes in this rate can affect the valuation of key assets, including currencies and equities, with higher-than-expected results often signaling labor market weakness that may be bearish for markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The U-6 Unemployment Rate is calculated using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of households conducted by the BLS, which interviews around 60,000 households to collect information on employment status. This measure incorporates various labor force statistics, employing definitions set by the International Labor Organization (ILO) and involves adjustment methods to ensure its accuracy and relevance in reflecting labor market dynamics.

Description

This unemployment measure provides insights into labor market conditions by encompassing those who are not only jobless but also those who are marginally attached or involuntarily working part-time. Because it offers a broader perspective than the traditional unemployment rate, the U-6 rate is often viewed as a better indicator of labor market slack or under-utilization in the economy.

Additional Notes

The U-6 Unemployment Rate is considered a lagging indicator, as changes typically follow economic shifts rather than predict them. It is often compared with the more commonly reported U-3 rate (the official unemployment rate) to highlight discrepancies and provide a richer context for understanding the labor market’s health.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. A dovish tone: Signaling lower employment and economic support is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to lower borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 02, 2025	7.8%	8%	7.9%	-0.2%
Apr 04, 2025	7.9%	8.1%	8%	-0.2%
Mar 07, 2025	8%	7.6%	7.5%	0.4%
Feb 07, 2025	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%
Jan 10, 2025	7.5%	7.9%	7.7%	-0.4%
Dec 06, 2024	7.8%	7.7%	7.7%	0.1%
Nov 01, 2024	7.7%	7.8%	7.7%	-0.1%
Oct 04, 2024	7.7%	8%	7.9%	-0.3%
Sep 06, 2024	7.9%	7.8%	7.8%	0.1%
Aug 02, 2024	7.8%	7.4%	7.4%	0.4%
Jul 05, 2024	7.4%	7.5%	7.4%	-0.1%
Jun 07, 2024	7.4%	7.4%	7.4%
May 03, 2024	7.4%	7.3%	7.3%	0.1%
Apr 05, 2024	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%
Mar 08, 2024	7.3%	7.3%	7.2%
Feb 02, 2024	7.2%	7.3%	7.1%	-0.1%
Jan 05, 2024	7.1%	7.2%	7%	-0.1%
Dec 08, 2023	7%	7.3%	7.2%	-0.3%
Nov 03, 2023	7.2%	7%	7%	0.2%
Oct 06, 2023	7%	7.1%	7.1%	-0.1%
Sep 01, 2023	7.1%	6.8%	6.7%	0.3%
Aug 04, 2023	6.7%	6.9%	6.9%	-0.2%
Jul 07, 2023	6.9%	6.7%	6.7%	0.2%