United States USD

United States PPI

Impact:
Low
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
0.272
Actual:
148.072
Forecast: 147.8
Previous/Revision:
147.884
Period: May

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 148.9
Period: Jun
What Does It Measure?
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, focusing primarily on inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches the consumer. It assesses key components such as product and service prices, reflecting the overall economic health and production cost trends of the national market.
Frequency
PPI is released monthly, typically in the second week following the reference month, providing a preliminary estimate that is subject to revision.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to PPI as it serves as a leading indicator of inflation, impacting financial markets significantly; higher-than-expected results may lead to a bullish sentiment for the U.S. dollar and equities, while weaker readings could have a bearish effect. The index's timeliness enhances its relevance for forecasting economic performance and guiding investment decisions.
What Is It Derived From?
The PPI is derived from a survey conducted across various industries, capturing price changes for approximately 10,000 products and services. Data is collected using the method of average price changes weighted by value, ensuring a comprehensive representation of the broader economy.
Description
Preliminary reports of the PPI present early estimates based on initial data collection, while final reports, released later, offer a refined and accurate figure. Month-over-Month (MoM) and Year-over-Year (YoY) data are typically discussed, with YoY being preferred for its ability to smooth seasonal fluctuations and provide a long-term view of inflation trends.
Additional Notes
As a leading economic indicator, the PPI offers insights into future consumer price inflation and broader economic trends, influencing various sectors. It often correlates with other inflation measures like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and serves as a crucial metric for monetary policy assessments.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. A hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Jun 12, 2025
148.072
 147.8
147.884
 0.272
May 15, 2025
147.677
 147.76
148.374
 -0.083
Apr 11, 2025
147.464
 148.1
148.045
 -0.636
Mar 13, 2025
147.953
 148.1
147.975
 -0.147
Feb 13, 2025
147.716
 147.2
147.127
 0.516
Jan 14, 2025
146.842
 146.8
146.521
 0.042
Dec 12, 2024
146.493
 146
145.941
 0.493
Nov 14, 2024
145.615
 145.46
145.329
 0.155
Oct 11, 2024
145.173
 145
145.103
 0.173
Oct 10, 2024
 
 144.5
144.854
Sep 12, 2024
144.854
 144.8
144.506
 0.054
Aug 13, 2024
144.673
 114.4
144.531
 30.273
Jul 12, 2024
144.402
 144.1
144.079
 0.302
Jun 13, 2024
143.82
 144.3
144.1
 -0.48
May 14, 2024
144.1
 143.9
143.3
 0.2
Apr 11, 2024
143.7
 143.7
143.5