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United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Orders

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-7
Actual:
-7
Forecast: 0
Previous/Revision:
-1
Period: Sep
What Does It Measure?
The CBI Industrial Trends Orders is an economic indicator from the United Kingdom that measures the balance of order books in the manufacturing sector, specifically assessing the current level of domestic and export orders. It primarily focuses on production capacity and market demand, with key indicators including order book status and export orders, where a balance of above zero indicates a higher number of manufacturers reporting increased orders than those reporting a decrease.
Frequency
This report is released monthly and provides a preliminary estimate of the manufacturing sector's order books, typically published on the first working day of the month following the survey period.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay attention to the CBI Industrial Trends Orders because it serves as a leading indicator of manufacturing activity and economic health; higher-than-expected results may lead to optimism in the currency and stock markets. Conversely, lower readings might signal a potential downturn, influencing market sentiment and trading decisions around GBP, equities, and bonds.
What Is It Derived From?
The CBI Industrial Trends Orders survey is derived from responses collected from approximately 500 manufacturers across the UK, with data primarily gathered through questionnaires that assess order books and expected production levels. This survey utilizes a diffusion index to gauge sentiment, where a positive balance indicates growth in orders relative to the previous month.
Description
Preliminary reports reflect early estimates based on survey responses and may be revised as additional data becomes available, leading to final reports that provide a more accurate portrayal of the manufacturing sector's performance. The primary reporting methodology uses the Month-over-Month (MoM) comparison, emphasizing short-term changes that are critical for traders looking to identify sudden shifts in manufacturing sentiment.
Additional Notes
The CBI Industrial Trends Orders serves as a leading economic measure as it often provides early signals of market trends and manufacturing outputs that impact overall economic activity. It is closely watched in relation to other indicators such as the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) and broader economic performance metrics both within the UK and globally.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Sep 22, 2015
-7
 0
-1
 -7