France EUR

France Inflation Rate YoY Prel

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: INSEE, France

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2%

EUR

Actual:

0.7%

Forecast: 0.9%

Previous/Revision:

0.8%

Period: May

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The France Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary (YoY Prel) measures the percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) over the past year, focusing primarily on the price changes of goods and services consumed by households. It assesses key areas such as cost of living, purchasing power, and inflationary pressures within the French economy, with an emphasis on indicators like food prices, energy costs, and housing expenses.

Frequency

This report is released monthly and often serves as a preliminary estimate, providing the initial inflation figures within the first half of the month, typically on the second or third working day.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the inflation rate as it significantly influences monetary policy decisions and economic forecasts, affecting financial markets, particularly currencies like the Euro (EUR), equities, and bonds. Higher-than-expected inflation readings can be bullish for currencies and equities, as they may lead to tighter monetary policy, whereas lower readings might spur bearish sentiments.

What Is It Derived From?

The inflation rate is derived from a comprehensive survey of prices collected across various sectors, using a basket of goods and services that represent typical household spending in France. This data is gathered through statistical methods that account for price changes and weighting mechanisms to ensure accurate representation of consumer behavior.

Description

Preliminary reports on inflation provide early estimates based on survey data that may be subject to revisions, while the final report offers a more accurate reflection of the inflation landscape later in the month. The focus on year-over-year change eliminates seasonal effects, allowing for a clearer understanding of long-term inflation trends.

Additional Notes

This economic indicator is considered a coincident measure, as it reflects current inflation conditions, and is closely observed alongside other indicators such as GDP growth rates and unemployment figures. As a key driver of central bank policy, the inflation rate is pivotal in guiding interest rate decisions not only in France but also within the broader Eurozone context.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the EUR but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
May 27, 2025	0.7%	0.9%	0.8%	-0.2%
Apr 30, 2025	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Mar 28, 2025	0.8%	1%	0.8%	-0.2%
Feb 28, 2025	0.8%	1%	1.7%	-0.2%
Jan 31, 2025	1.4%	1.5%	1.3%	-0.1%
Jan 07, 2025	1.3%	1.5%	1.3%	-0.2%
Nov 29, 2024	1.3%	1.5%	1.2%	-0.2%
Oct 31, 2024	1.2%	1.1%	1.1%	0.1%
Sep 27, 2024	1.2%	1.6%	1.8%	-0.4%
Aug 30, 2024	1.9%	1.8%	2.3%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2024	2.3%	2.4%	2.2%	-0.1%
Jun 28, 2024	2.1%	2.5%	2.3%	-0.4%
May 31, 2024	2.2%	2.4%	2.2%	-0.2%
Apr 30, 2024	2.2%	2.1%	2.3%	0.1%
Mar 29, 2024	2.3%	2.6%	3%	-0.3%
Feb 29, 2024	2.9%	2.7%	3.1%	0.2%
Jan 31, 2024	3.1%	2.9%	3.7%	0.2%
Jan 04, 2024	3.7%	3.8%	3.5%	-0.1%
Nov 30, 2023	3.4%	3.7%	4%	-0.3%
Oct 31, 2023	4%	4%	4.9%
Sep 29, 2023	4.9%	5.1%	4.9%	-0.2%
Aug 31, 2023	4.8%	4.6%	4.3%	0.2%
Jul 28, 2023	4.3%	4.3%	4.5%
Jun 30, 2023	4.5%	4.6%	5.1%	-0.1%
May 31, 2023	5.1%	5.5%	5.9%	-0.4%
Apr 28, 2023	5.9%	5.7%	5.7%	0.2%
Mar 31, 2023	5.6%	5.5%	6.3%	0.1%
Feb 28, 2023	6.2%	6.1%	6%	0.1%
Jan 31, 2023	6%	6.1%	5.9%	-0.1%
Jan 04, 2023	5.9%	6.4%	6.2%	-0.5%
Nov 30, 2022	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%
Oct 28, 2022	6.2%	5.7%	5.6%	0.5%
Sep 30, 2022	5.6%	5.9%	5.9%	-0.3%
Aug 31, 2022	5.8%	6.1%	6.1%	-0.3%
Jul 29, 2022	6.1%	6%	5.8%	0.1%
Jun 30, 2022	5.8%	5.7%	5.2%	0.1%
May 31, 2022	5.2%	5%	4.8%	0.2%
Apr 29, 2022	4.8%	4.5%	4.5%	0.3%
Mar 31, 2022	4.5%	4.3%	3.6%	0.2%
Feb 25, 2022	3.6%	3.2%	2.9%	0.4%
Feb 01, 2022	2.9%	2.4%	2.8%	0.5%
Jan 04, 2022	2.8%	2.9%	2.8%	-0.1%
Nov 30, 2021	2.8%	2.6%	2.6%	0.2%
Oct 29, 2021	2.6%	2.5%	2.2%	0.1%
Sep 30, 2021	2.1%	2.2%	1.9%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2021	1.9%	1.7%	1.2%	0.2%
Jul 30, 2021	1.2%	1%	1.5%	0.2%
Jun 30, 2021	1.5%	1.5%	1.4%
May 28, 2021	1.4%	1.4%	1.2%
Apr 30, 2021	1.3%	1.3%	1.1%
Mar 31, 2021	1.1%	1.1%	0.6%
Feb 26, 2021	0.4%	0.3%	0.6%	0.1%
Feb 02, 2021	0.6%	0.4%	0%	0.2%
Jan 06, 2021	0%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.2%
Nov 27, 2020	0.2%	0.1%	0%	0.1%
Oct 30, 2020	0%	0.3%	0%	-0.3%
Sep 30, 2020	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.2%
Aug 28, 2020	0.2%	0.3%	0.8%	-0.1%
Jul 31, 2020	0.8%	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
Jun 30, 2020	0.1%	-0.2%	0.4%	0.3%
May 29, 2020	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2020	0.4%	0.1%	0.7%	0.3%
Mar 31, 2020	0.6%	0.9%	1.4%	-0.3%
Feb 28, 2020	1.4%	1.5%	1.5%	-0.1%
Jan 31, 2020	1.5%	1.3%	1.5%	0.2%
Jan 03, 2020	1.4%	1.2%	1%	0.2%
Nov 29, 2019	1%	0.9%	0.8%	0.1%
Oct 31, 2019	0.7%	1.1%	0.9%	-0.4%
Sep 27, 2019	0.9%	0.9%	1%
Aug 30, 2019	1.1%	1%	1.1%	0.1%
Jul 31, 2019	1.1%	1.4%	1.2%	-0.3%
Jun 28, 2019	1.2%	1.1%	0.9%	0.1%
May 29, 2019	1%	1.1%	1.3%	-0.1%
Apr 30, 2019	1.2%	1.2%	1.1%
Mar 29, 2019	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	-0.1%
Feb 28, 2019	1.3%	1.6%	1.2%	-0.3%
Jan 31, 2019	1.2%	1.4%	1.6%	-0.2%
Jan 04, 2019	1.6%	1.8%	1.9%	-0.2%
Nov 30, 2018	1.9%	2.3%	2.2%	-0.4%
Oct 31, 2018	2.2%	2.1%	2.2%	0.1%
Sep 28, 2018	2.2%	2.2%	2.3%
Aug 31, 2018	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%
Jul 31, 2018	2.3%	1.9%	2%	0.4%
Jun 29, 2018	2.1%	1.8%	2%	0.3%
May 31, 2018	2%	1.5%	1.6%	0.5%
Apr 27, 2018	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	-0.1%
Mar 30, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.2%
Feb 28, 2018	1.2%	1.5%	1.3%	-0.3%
Jan 31, 2018	1.4%	1.1%	1.2%	0.3%
Jan 05, 2018	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%
Nov 30, 2017	1.2%	1.3%	1.1%	-0.1%
Oct 31, 2017	1.1%	1.1%	1%
Sep 29, 2017	1%	1.1%	0.9%	-0.1%
Aug 31, 2017	0.9%	0.9%	0.7%
Jul 28, 2017	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
Jun 30, 2017	0.7%	0.6%	0.8%	0.1%
May 31, 2017	0.8%	1.3%	1.2%	-0.5%
Apr 28, 2017	1.2%	1.3%	1.1%	-0.1%
Mar 31, 2017	1.1%	1.2%	1.2%	-0.1%
Feb 28, 2017	1.2%	1.7%	1.3%	-0.5%
Jan 31, 2017	1.4%	0.61%	0.6%	0.79%
Jan 03, 2017	0.6%	0.8%	0.5%	-0.2%
Nov 30, 2016	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	-0.1%
Oct 28, 2016	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.1%
Sep 30, 2016	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Aug 31, 2016	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jul 29, 2016	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jun 30, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	0%
May 31, 2016	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Apr 29, 2016	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Mar 31, 2016	-0.2%	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.4%
Feb 26, 2016	-0.2%	0.19%	0.2%	-0.39%
Jan 29, 2016	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	-1.5%