China CNY

China National Day Golden Week

Impact:
Low

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The China National Day Golden Week measures consumer spending and economic activity during a key holiday period in China, which includes the National Day on October 1st and typically lasts for seven days. This event primarily assesses domestic tourism, retail sales, and overall consumer sentiment, serving as a critical indicator of economic health during a peak travel and shopping season.
Frequency
The event occurs annually, with specific reports and data released shortly after the holiday period, typically within the first week of October.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Golden Week as it can significantly influence economic forecasts, impacting financial markets and key assets such as the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and related stocks. Strong consumer spending during this time is often viewed as a bullish signal for the economy, whereas weak results may lead to bearish sentiment.
What Is It Derived From?
The Golden Week data is derived from various sources, including retail sales reports, tourism statistics, and surveys of consumer behavior conducted by government agencies and private organizations. This can include data on hotel occupancy rates, transportation, and spending patterns during the holiday week.
Description
Preliminary reports detailing holiday spending and tourism activity are released shortly after the week concludes, while final data—which offers a more comprehensive and accurate picture—comes out later. The preliminary reports are scrutinized by traders for immediate market impacts, as they reflect the initial consumer sentiment and economic health indicators, setting the tone for expectations in subsequent quarters.
Additional Notes
The Golden Week acts as a coincident economic measure, reflecting real-time consumer and economic activity. It is often compared to similar holiday spending periods in other economies, providing insights into broader regional economic trends and consumer confidence.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise