United States USD

United States Interest Rate Projection - Longer

Impact:
Low
Source: Federal Reserve

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
3%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The United States Interest Rate Projection measures anticipated changes in the federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve, explicitly indicating the projected path of monetary policy. It focuses on key areas such as inflation control, employment levels, and overall economic growth, making it a vital national indicator that reflects the Fed's outlook on the economy.
Frequency
The interest rate projection is typically released quarterly during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and the figures presented are often considered preliminary estimates subject to revision in future meetings.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor interest rate projections because they signal potential adjustments in monetary policy that can significantly impact financial markets. Changes in interest rates can influence currency values (e.g., strengthening or weakening the USD), stock performance, and bond yields, thus affecting overall investment strategies.
What Is It Derived From?
The interest rate projection is derived from assessments made by Federal Reserve officials based on economic indicators, fiscal policies, and market conditions. Input from economic models, forecasts, and macroeconomic data contribute to the decision-making process, ensuring that the projections reflect the underlying economic landscape.
Description
Preliminary reports on interest rate projections are released shortly after FOMC meetings and provide an early insight into the Fed's monetary policy outlook, while final reports may offer revised estimates based on subsequent economic data. The projections are often expressed in terms of expected changes over multiple quarters, including specific probabilities assigned to various rate outcomes, thus providing a forward-looking view of interest rates.
Additional Notes
Interest rate projections serve as a leading economic measure, closely watched by economists and market participants for signs of future economic conditions. These projections not only relate to U.S. economic trends but also impact global markets, as changes in U.S. interest rates influence international capital flows and exchange rates.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the Currency but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Mar 19, 2025
3%
3%
Dec 18, 2024
3%
2.9%
Sep 18, 2024
2.9%
2.8%
Jun 12, 2024
2.8%
2.6%
Mar 20, 2024
2.6%
2.5%
Dec 13, 2023
2.5%
2.5%
Sep 20, 2023
2.5%
2.5%
Jun 14, 2023
2.5%
2.5%
Mar 22, 2023
2.5%
2.5%
Dec 14, 2022
2.5%
2.5%
Sep 21, 2022
2.5%
2.5%
Jun 15, 2022
2.5%
2.4%
Mar 16, 2022
2.4%
2.5%
Dec 15, 2021
2.5%
2.5%