United States USD

United States ISM New York Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-9.8

Actual:

37.2

Forecast: 47

Previous/Revision:

35.5

Period: Mar

What Does It Measure?

The ISM New York Index measures the economic activity in the manufacturing and service sectors within the New York region, assessing general economic conditions and business sentiment. Its primary focus includes key areas such as production levels, employment, and inventory changes, with values above 50 indicating expansion in the economy and values below 50 signaling contraction, making it a regional indicator.

Frequency

The ISM New York Index is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month, and represents a preliminary estimate of economic conditions based on responses collected during the preceding month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the ISM New York Index closely due to its relevance in gauging economic health and forecasts for future growth, which can influence market trends and investor sentiment. A higher-than-expected index suggests strengthening economic conditions leading to bullish sentiments in currencies and equities, while lower readings may have a bearish effect.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey conducted among purchasing and supply executives in the New York area, focusing on various business metrics. This survey typically includes a diverse group of respondents, allowing the compilation of a diffusion index based on weighted responses about production, employment, and other components.

Description

The ISM New York Index provides insights into regional economic activity by utilizing a survey approach that captures timely business feedback. Preliminary reports are based on early responses, signifying the urgency and relevance of the data, while final figures provide a more accurate and comprehensive view after revisions, with the index primarily reported on a month-over-month basis to identify recent trends.

Additional Notes

The ISM New York Index serves as a coincident economic measure, reflecting current economic conditions and often correlating with national trends. It is noteworthy that this index is part of a wider suite of manufacturing and service indices that aid in analyzing both regional and national economic activities.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 05, 2021	37.2	47	35.5	-9.8
Mar 02, 2021	35.5	52	51.2	-16.5
Feb 02, 2021	51.2	58	61.3	-6.8
Jan 05, 2021	61.3	48.5	44.2	12.8
Dec 02, 2020	44.2	55	65.1	-10.8
Nov 03, 2020	65.1	54.5	56.1	10.6
Oct 02, 2020	56.1	42	42.9	14.1
Sep 02, 2020	42.9	52	53.5	-9.1
Aug 04, 2020	53.5	45.1	39.5	8.4
Jul 02, 2020	39.5	43.8	19.5	-4.3
Jun 02, 2020	19.5	19.1	4.3	0.4
May 04, 2020	4.3	10	12.9	-5.7
Apr 02, 2020	12.9	42.6	51.9	-29.7
Mar 03, 2020	51.9	48	45.8	3.9
Feb 04, 2020	45.8	43.8	39.1	2
Jan 03, 2020	39.1	51.5	50.4	-12.4
Dec 03, 2019	50.4	44.7	47.7	5.7
Nov 04, 2019	47.7	45.8	42.8	1.9
Oct 02, 2019	42.8	47.5	50.3	-4.7
Sep 04, 2019	50.3	49	43.5	1.3
Aug 02, 2019	43.5	51	50	-7.5
Jul 02, 2019	50	53.8	48.6	-3.8
Jun 04, 2019	48.6	66.5	77.3	-17.9
May 02, 2019	77.3	66.7	66.9	10.6
Apr 02, 2019	66.9	56	61.1	10.9
Mar 04, 2019	61.1	60	63.4	1.1
Feb 04, 2019	63.4	60.1	65.4	3.3
Jan 03, 2019	65.4	67	67.8	-1.6
Dec 04, 2018	67.8	69.5	69.8	-1.7
Nov 02, 2018	69.8	69	72.5	0.8
Oct 02, 2018	72.5	56.8	76.5	15.7
Sep 05, 2018	76.5	57	75	19.5
Aug 02, 2018	75	57.3	55	17.7
Jul 03, 2018	55	59.4	56.4	-4.4
Jun 04, 2018	56.4	58.3	64.3	-1.9
May 02, 2018	64.3	57	54	7.3
Apr 03, 2018	54	59.6	54.5	-5.6
Mar 02, 2018	54.5	62	72.5	-7.5
Feb 02, 2018	72.5	55	56.3	17.5
Jan 03, 2018	56.3	59.4	58.1	-3.1
Dec 04, 2017	58.1	54	51.6	4.1
Nov 02, 2017	51.6	56.8	49.7	-5.2
Oct 03, 2017	49.7	57.2	56.6	-7.5
Sep 05, 2017	56.6	63	62.8	-6.4
Aug 02, 2017	62.8	53.1	55.5	9.7
Jul 05, 2017	55.5	51.1	46.7	4.4
Jun 02, 2017	46.7	55.3	55.8	-8.6
May 02, 2017	55.8	56.2	56.5	-0.4
Apr 04, 2017	56.5	53	51.3	3.5
Mar 02, 2017	51.3	58.1	57.7	-6.8
Feb 02, 2017	57.7	64	63.8	-6.3
Jan 04, 2017	63.8	53.5	52.5	10.3
Dec 02, 2016	52.5	61	49.2	-8.5
Nov 02, 2016	49.2	58	49.6	-8.8
Oct 04, 2016	49.6	53.2	47.5	-3.6
Sep 02, 2016	47.5	60	60.7	-12.5
Aug 02, 2016	60.7	51	45.4	9.7
Jul 05, 2016	45.4	48.71	37.2	-3.31
Jun 02, 2016	37.2	52	57	-14.8
May 03, 2016	57	51	50.4	6
Apr 04, 2016	50.4	57.42	53.6	-7.02
Mar 02, 2016	53.6	55	54.6	-1.4
Feb 02, 2016	54.6	61	62	-6.4
Jan 05, 2016	62	60	60.7	2
Dec 02, 2015	60.7	57.45	65.8	3.25
Nov 03, 2015	65.8	53.8	44.5	12
Oct 02, 2015	44.5	54	51.1	-9.5
Sep 02, 2015	51.1	67	68.8	-15.9
Aug 04, 2015	68.8	56.43	63.1	12.37
Jul 02, 2015	63.1	54.5	54	8.6
Jun 02, 2015	54	54.55	58.1	-0.55
May 04, 2015	58.1		50