Italy EUR

Italy CPI Final

Impact:
Low
Source: National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
119.7
Forecast: 119.7
Previous/Revision:
119.5
Period: Dec

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 119.5
Period: Jan
What Does It Measure?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Italy measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, providing crucial insights into inflation and cost of living. It assesses key areas such as essential goods, services, and discretionary expenditures, with a focus on price trends that affect consumer purchasing power.
Frequency
The CPI is released monthly and consists of both preliminary estimates and final figures, typically published around the end of the month following the reporting period.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the CPI as it significantly influences monetary policy and economic forecasts; higher-than-expected inflation readings can lead to expectations of interest rate hikes, promoting bullish sentiment for currencies like the Euro and bearish sentiment for equities. Conversely, unfavorable CPI results may indicate a slowing economy, impacting investment strategies across financial markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The CPI is calculated based on price surveys collected from various retailers and service providers across Italy, encompassing a representative sample of the population’s consumption patterns. The index uses a fixed basket of goods and services, weighted according to their importance in the average consumer's expenditure.
Description
The CPI report includes both preliminary data, which reflects initial price assessments and is subject to revision, and final data, which provides a more complete and accurate depiction of inflation trends. The monthly comparison (MoM) is essential for capturing immediate fluctuations in consumer prices, while the Year-over-Year (YoY) metric helps in analyzing long-term inflation trends and seasonal effects.
Additional Notes
The Italian CPI serves as a leading economic indicator, influencing not only national but also regional economic policies within the Eurozone. Its implications are significant for understanding broader economic conditions, as higher inflation may correlate with tightening monetary policies across similar economies globally.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the Euro but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Jan 16, 2024
119.7
 119.7
119.5
Dec 15, 2023
119.5
 119.6
120.1
 -0.1
Nov 15, 2023
120.1
 120.2
120.3
 -0.1
Oct 16, 2023
120.3
 120.3
120.1
Sep 15, 2023
120.1
 120.2
199.7
 -0.1
Aug 10, 2023
119.7
 119.8
119.7
 -0.1
Jul 17, 2023
119.7
 119.7
119.7
Jun 16, 2023
119.7
 119.7
119.3
May 16, 2023
119.3
 119.4
118.8
 -0.1
Apr 17, 2023
118.8
 118.9
119.3
 -0.1
Mar 16, 2023
119.3
 119.4
119.1
 -0.1
Feb 22, 2023
119.1
119
Jan 17, 2023
119
 119
118.7
Dec 16, 2022
118.7
 118.7
118.1
Nov 16, 2022
118.1
 118.2
114.2
 -0.1