France EUR

France 15-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
1.58%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
1.48%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The France 15-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction measures the performance and demand for France's 15-year inflation-linked government bonds, known as Obligations Assimilables du Trésor (OAT). This auction assesses investor sentiment towards France's fiscal health and inflation expectations by observing the yield and coverage ratio, which indicates the total bids received relative to the amount offered.
Frequency
This auction occurs bi-monthly, typically on a Wednesday, and the results are released shortly after the auction concludes, providing immediate insight into market conditions.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor this auction closely because it influences French bond yields and, by extension, impacts the broader European bond market. Higher demand at the auction often leads to lower yields, which can strengthen the euro against other currencies and positively affect stock markets, while weaker demand can have the opposite effect.
What Is It Derived From?
The auction results are derived from bids placed by institutional and retail investors, where the French Treasury sets the amount to be raised and the bonds' terms, including inflation indexing. The auction process employs a competitive bidding system, where participants indicate the amount they wish to purchase and the yield they are willing to accept, ultimately determining the final yield based on the highest interest rate accepted.
Description
The auction's preliminary results provide early estimates of market sentiment, while final results offer a more definitive picture of demand and pricing. Typically reported in terms of the yield, the bid-to-cover ratio, and the total amount raised, traders analyze these figures to gauge the market's outlook on inflation and fiscal policy stability.
Additional Notes
The auction serves as a coincident economic measure by reflecting real-time investor appetite and borrowing costs driven by inflation concerns. As such, it is closely watched in relation to other European bond auctions and broader economic indicators, helping to contextualize France's economic health within the Eurozone.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected demand at the auction: Bullish for the euro, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected demand: Bearish for the euro, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
May 22, 2025
1.58%
1.48%
Mar 20, 2025
1.48%
1.38%
Jan 23, 2025
1.38%
1.19%